Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2008 Vol. 14 No. 2

Palau Flag Republic of Palau: Palau had near normal rainfall during the 1st Quarter of 2008. The 26.94 inches recorded at the WSO Koror was 96% of the long-term average. The Palau International Airport, with a 3-month total of 33.40 inches (119% of normal), is establishing a trend of being generally wetter than the nearby WSO Koror. Further south at Peleliu, the 25.09 inches of rainfall was slightly lower than the 1st Quarter total recorded at the WSO. Peleliu has a fairly long-standing trend of being slightly drier than northern parts of Palau.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2008

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
11.43
9.68
5.83
26.94
32.60
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
96%
110%
Nekken*
Rainfall (inches)
8.14
7.52
5.12
20.78
32.60
% of WSO
N/A
N/A
N/A
74%
110%
International
Airport *
Rainfall (inches)
14.23
11.23
7.94
33.40
32.60
% of WSO
N/A
N/A
N/A
119%
110%
Peleliu*
Rainfall (inches)
7.66
9.16
8.27
25.09
32.60
% of Normal
72%
102%
101%
92%
110%
Predictions made in 4th Quarter 2007 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook: Because of a continuation of La Niñarelated climate anomalies, much of the tropical cyclone formation in the western North Pacific basin will remain shifted farther westward than normal during 2008. This shift will allow Palau and Yap to experience episodes of heavy showers within the southern portions of tropical disturbances and developing tropical cyclones (especially from September through December 2008). In addition, abundant rainfall is expected from June through the end of the year in association with the monsoon trough of the western North Pacific. During the latter half of 2008, there should be several episodes of heavy rainfall as well as 2 or 3 occurrences of gusty westerly winds and rough seas from tropical cyclones passing to the north of Palau. The rainfall throughout the Republic of Palau should be near normal or slightly wetter than normal for the foreseeable future.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from May 2008 through April 2009 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

May - August 2008
(Main Rainy Season) **

120%
(72.32 inches)

September - October 2008
(Monsoon Break in Rainy Season) **

100%

November 2008 - January 2009
(End of Rainy Season) **

120%

February - April 2009
(Dry Season) **

100%
Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

** Palau has a complex mix of rainy and dry months. The wettest months are typically June, July and August. During September, the monsoon trough and tracks of typhoons move far to the north of Palau, lowering the average rainfall in September to below that of both August and October.

source: UOG-WERI