Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2008 Vol. 14 No. 2

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Rainfall was slightly above normal during the 1st Quarter of 2008 at all recording locations around Kosrae. The 3-month totals ranged from 55.87 inches at the Nautilus Hotel to 49.39 inches at Utwa. Normal rainfall at Kosrae for the 3-month period of January - March is approximately 49 inches.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2008

Station  
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
1st Qtr
Predicted
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
13.38
24.85
16.87
55.10
49.41
% of Normal
93%
152%
90%
112%
100%
Utwa*
 Rainfall (Inches)
16.64
20.94
11.81
49.39
49.41
% of WSO
N/A
N/A
N/A
100%
100%
Nautilus*
 Rainfall (Inches)
13.70
23.64
18.53
55.87
49.41
% of WSO
N/A
N/A
N/A
113%
100%
Predictions made in 4th Quarter 2007 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook: Because of weather patterns associated with La Niña, the risk of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon affecting Kosrae in 2008 is very unlikely. The very early stages of some developing tropical cyclones may bring some episodes of heavy rain to Kosrae, especially during the months of October through December, but these systems should not become tropical storms or typhoons until they are well west of Kosrae State. Based on the continuation of La Niña conditions for the next few months, rainfall at Kosrae should be near normal to slightly above normal for the next three months, and then remain near normal for the remainder of the calendar year.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from May 2008 through April 2009 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
May - June 2008
110%
(41.58 inches)
July - September 2008
100%
October - December 2008
100%
January - April 2009
110%
Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI