Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2008 Vol. 14 No. 1

HI Flag State of Hawaii
Seasonal Precipitation Summary

While the State of Hawai‘i entered the 4th quarter of 2007 with lackluster rainfall in October, the months of November and December helped make up for the deficit. After an atypically quiet October, a strong kona storm at the beginning of November brought thunderstorms, heavy rains and flash flooding to Kaua‘i, Oahu and Moloka‘i, with some areas of windward Oahu receiving 8-10 inches of rain in the two day period. A strong upper-level trough moved across the state on the 26th and 27th, generating thunderstorms and heavy showers across Kaua‘i before moving southeast — causing significant flash flooding, damage to homes and highway closures along the Kona slopes of the Big Island.

December, the wettest month since March 2006, continued this stormy trend. A strong cold front pushed across the state on the 4th bringing damaging winds, torrential rains and widespread flooding. The associated low pressure system kept very moist kona winds over the islands, producing brief but frequent episodes of moderate to heavy showers through the 8th. Flooding forced road closures on Kauai, and violent winds brought down a string of 16 utility poles along Farrington Highway near Wai‘anae, Oahu. Maui and Hawaii islands saw the heaviest rains, with several sites recording event totals between 10- to 15-inches. In Maui County, two people were rescued from the roof of their home after it was swept downhill over 100 yards. While damage estimates will likely run into the millions of dollars, only one significant injury was reported.

The wet conditions for the second consecutive month helped ease drought problems which established itself in May 2007. Mandatory water use restrictions in Upcountry Maui and Waimanalo, Oahu have been removed due to improved reservoir supplies.

Additional individual rainfall station information and specific island information for Hawaii can be found in the Monthly Precipitation Summaries.

Hawaii Rainfall Summary for Select Stations, 4th Quarter 2007

Station   Oct. Nov. Dec. 4th Qtr Annual
Lihue Airport Rainfall (inches)
0.39
3.35
5.36
9.10
21.58
% of Normal
9%
71%
112%
66%
55%
Honolulu Airport Rainfall (inches)
0.15
5.46
3.08
8.69
11.99
% of Normal
7%
241%
108%
119%
66%
Kahului Airport Rainfall (inches)
0.48
1.59
6.88
8.95
13.13
% of Normal
46%
73%
223%
142%
70%
Hilo Airport Rainfall (inches)
8.24
10.38
17.56
36.18
106.65
% of Normal
85%
67%
167%
101%
84%


Climate Outlook: The following is in excerpt from the Climate Prediction Center’s official Seasonal Outlook Discussion for Hawaii ...

“Moderate La Niña conditions are present across the tropical Pacific, and recent SST forecasts for the NIÑO 3.4 region indicate a continuation of La Niña into the northern hemisphere spring 2008. Based on current conditions in the tropical Pacific and results from historical studies on the effects of cold episodes, wetter than normal conditions are expected over Hawaii and some U.S.-Affiliated Islands during the winter. Models indicate a tendency for above normal temperatures and precipitation for Hawaii through March-April-May 2008…