Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2007 Vol. 13 No. 4

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State:  During the 3rd Quarter of 2007, the rainfall throughout most of Yap State was near normal to slightly above normal. Most locations on Yap Island received approximately 45 inches of rain with a low of 40.77 inches at Rumung and a high of 51.78 inches at Luweech. The 51.78 inches of rain at Luweech was one of the highest rainfall amounts recorded in the USAPI during the 3rd Quarter of 2007, second only to the 52.16 inches of rain recorded at the Palau International Airport (Figure 1). Woleai was the only location in Yap State to record substantially below normal (80%) rainfall in the 3rd Quarter. During September, some of the Yap Island stations recorded in excess of 20 inches of rainfall. The occurrence of twenty inches or more of rain during one month was rare during the 3rd Quarter, and occurred only in Yap State (in September), the Republic of Palau (in July), and at Kapingamarangi (in July).

Yap State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2007

Station   July Aug. Sept. 3rdQtr
Predicted (3rd Qtr)
Yap WSO Rainfall (inches)
15.19
13.36
17.96
46.51
40.91
% of Normal
104%
88%
133%
108%
95%
Dugor* Rainfall (inches)
11.31
12.22
23.35
46.88
40.91
Gilman* Rainfall (inches)
13.40
10.38
18.04
41.82
40.91
Luweech* Rainfall (inches)
15.13
18.77
17.88
51.78
40.91
Maap* Rainfall (inches)
14.40
9.47
22.83
46.70
40.91
North Fanif* Rainfall (inches)
13.59
11.23
21.36
46.18
40.19
Rumung* Rainfall (inches)
14.29
10.58
15.90
40.77
40.91
Tamil* Rainfall (inches)
10.85
11.73
23.14
45.72
40.91
Ulithi Rainfall (inches)
7.54
15.67
16.91
40.12
34.97
% of Normal
61 %
121%
147%
109%
95%
Woleai Rainfall (inches)
7.01
14.93
10.24
32.18
40.23
% of Normal
50%
102%
88%
80%
100%
Predicted rainfall refers to forecast made in 2nd Quarter 2007 PEAC Newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites.

Climate Outlook: The tropical cyclone threat for the remainder of 2007 and into January of 2008 should be near normal in Yap State . During this 3-month period, approximately 2 or 3 tropical cyclones should pass close enough to the islands of Yap State to bring heavy rainfall, gusty westerly winds, and hazardous surf. The threat of a direct strike by a typhoon at Yap Island and at Ulithi is roughly one-half to two-thirds that of the threat to Guam and the CNMI. The threat is even less to the south at Woleai. While we expect no direct strikes by a typhoon of any island or atoll of Yap State during the next three months (November 2007 through January 2008), residents should always remain prepared for the remote possibility. Because of La Niña weather patterns, rainfall should continue to be above normal throughout Yap State for at least the next 3 months.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from November 2007 through October 2008 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai

Nov 2007 – Jan 2008
(End of Rainy Season)

125%
(31.759 inches)
110%
(27.94 inches)

Feb – May 2008
(Heart of Next Dry Season)

100% 100%

June– July 2008
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)

110% 100%

Aug - Oct 2008
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)

110% 100%
Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI