Republic of the Marshall Islands: Most of the atolls of the RMI were drier than normal during the 3rd Quarter of 2007. The exception was for some of the southern atolls of the RMI (e.g., Mili) where the 3-month rainfall totals were quite a bit higher than at Majuro and other atolls to the north. Some of the atolls in the northern RMI were still exceptionally dry in this normally wet time of year. The northern atolls of the RMI (Kwajalein, Utirik and Wotje) were among the driest of locations in Micronesia during the 3rd Quarter of 2007 (Figure 1), while Mili (in the southern portion of the RMI) had a relatively high value (40.57 inches). Wotje and Utirik received 60% and 64% of their normal rainfall during the 3rd Quarter of 2007, respectively.

Republic of the Marshall Islands Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2007

Climate Outlook: As La Niña further develops, it is anticipated that a large north-south gradient of rainfall will become established in the RMI, whereby atolls in the southern portion of the RMI (e.g., Mili) have abundant rainfall, and atolls in the central and northern RMI are dry. Ironically, in the far south (Islands of Kiribati), the tongue of cold SST associated with La Niña should act to keep islands dry that are located within 3 degrees of the equator. The rainy season in the RMI extends through December, with October the wettest month of all at many locations. The rainfall deficits of the past few months (especially in the central and northern RMI) are worrisome, but there could still be abundant rainfall before the 2008 dry season begins. The worst-case scenario is that the rainfall during November and December is below normal, and many atolls go into the dry season with a lack-luster rainy season behind them. Based on this possible scenario, it may be prudent for residents of Majuro and the atolls of the northern RMI to begin voluntary conservation measures to ensure adequate supplies of drinking water. However, many forecasts indicate that rainfall in the RMI is likely to be near normal (even in the north), at least through the next 3 months. With anticipation of La Niña conditions to persist for at least the next three months, the RMI has a very low risk of a typhoon during the foreseeable future.

Forecast rainfall for the RMI from November 2007 through October 2008 is as follows:

source: UOG-WERI