Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2007 Vol. 13 No. 4

Palau Flag Republic of Palau: Palau had widespread abundant rainfall of 40 to 50 inches during the 3rd Quarter of 2007. The 43.93 inches at the WSO Koror was 98% of the long-term average. The Palau International Airport had almost 10 inches more than at the nearby WSO in Koror. The airport’s 3rd Quarter total of 52.16 inches was 116% of Koror’s normal value, and was the highest rainfall total recorded in Micronesia during the 3rd Quarter. Because of La Niña-related weather patterns, both Yap State and the Republic of Palau have had abundant rainfall for the past few months. This is likely to continue to be the case. Tropical cyclone formation in the western North Pacific basin was shifted westward during 2007. This allowed Palau and Yap to experience episodes of heavy showers within the southern portions of tropical disturbances and developing tropical cyclones, and also to receive abundant rains associated with the monsoon trough of the western North Pacific.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2007

Station   July Aug. Sept 3rd Qtr
Predicted (3rd Qtr)
Koror WSO Rainfall (inches)
16.40
11.09
16.44
43.93
38.80
% of Normal
91%
74%
137%
126%
90%

Nekken*

Rainfall (inches)
18.43
14.98
12.20
45.61
38.80
% of WSO
N/A
N/A
N/A
102%
90%
International
Airport *
Rainfall (inches)
22.70
13.90
15.56
52.16
38.80
% of WSO
N/A
N/A
N/A
116%
90%
Peleliu* Rainfall (inches)
18.55
13.85
11.03
43.43
40.30
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
97%
90%
Predicted rainfall refers to forecast made in 2nd Quarter 2007 PEAC Newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook: During the heart of the 2007 rainy season in Micronesia, the formation region of tropical cyclones was pushed westward, and Palau was affected by many tropical disturbances and monsoonal weather patterns that contributed to abundant rainfall. In general, most of the tropical storms and typhoons stayed well to the north of Palau. For the remainder of 2007 and continuing into January of 2008, there should be a few more episodes of heavy rainfall and 2 or 3 occurrences of gusty westerly winds and rough seas from tropical cyclones passing to the north of Palau, as the focus of the basin’s tropical cyclone activity remains shifted to the west of normal. Based on a continuation of La Niña conditions for the next few months, the rainfall throughout the Republic of Palau should be near normal or slightly wetter than normal for the foreseeable future.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from November 2007 through October 2008 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

Nov 2007 - Jan 2008
(End of Rainy Season)

120%
(29.29 inches)

Feb - April 2008
(Onset of Next Dry Season)

110%

May - August 2008
(Heart of Next Dry Season)

100%

September - October 2008
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)

100%
Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI