American Samoa:  Monthly rainfall for the 3rd quarter of 2007 was highly variable across American Samoa, due to the actively shifting location of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). In July, Pago Pago recorded near normal rainfall (98% of normal) while Aasufou recorded slightly lower than normal rainfall (77% of normal). August was considerably drier, with both sites receiving below normal rainfall for the month. September marked the return of abundant rainfall across American Samoa, as Pago Pago ended the month with 231% of normal rainfall, and Aasufou with 182.2% of normal rainfall. Overall, the 3rd Quarter of 2007 ended with above-normal rainfall for both Pago Pago (140% of normal) and Aasufou (106% of normal). — WSO Pago Pago

Climate Outlook: American Samoa is now in the heart of its rainy season. With the continued development of La Niña conditions, American Samoa is expected to receive near normal to slightly above normal rainfall through early 2008. However, month-to-month rainfall may be quite variable depending on the location and activity of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).

The threat of a tropical cyclone in the islands of American Samoa is expected to be lower than normal as La Niña forces a shift of tropical cyclone activity to the west. Only one or two named cyclones are expected to pass close to American Samoa during the period December 2007 to April 2008, bringing heavy rain and northwesterly winds approaching gale force. A direct strike by an intense hurricane such as occurred during February 2005 is not expected.

Forecast rainfall for American Samoa from November 2007 through October 2008 is as follows:

source: UOG-WERI