Pacific ENSO Update
3rd Quarter, 2007 Vol. 13 No. 3
State of Hawaii
Dry conditions continued through the 2nd quarter of 2007 for the majority of the Aloha State. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu indicate “moderately dry” to “very dry” conditions across many areas of Hawaii for the last 3 - 6 months. This ongoing dryness combined with the seasonal increase in temperatures began producing some agricultural drought impacts on several islands in early May, including voluntary irrigation water conservation in the Waimanalo area of Oahu and portions of the Kau District on the Big Island. Livestock farmers also reported degraded pasture conditions in the leeward areas of Maui and the Big Island. By June, the continued lack of significant rainfall resulted in a worsening of drought conditions in several leeward areas. Water conservation notices shifted from voluntary reductions to mandatory restrictions in Waimanalo (Oahu), Upcountry Maui and portions of the South Kohala and Hamakua Districts on the Big Island.
Brush fires have also increased statewide during the past month with large outbreaks occurring in leeward west Maui and near Waikoloa on the Big Island. In early July, a brush fire on Wa’ahilo Ridge prompted the evacuation of faculty housing and several buildings at the University of Hawaii Manoa Campus until it could be extinguished.
Additional individual rainfall station information and specific island information for Hawaii can be found in the Monthly Precipitation Summaries.
Hawaii Rainfall Summary for Select Stations, 2nd Quarter 2007
Climate Outlook: The following is in excerpt from the Climate Prediction Center ’s official Seasonal Outlook Discussion for Hawaii ...
“The tropical Pacific is still in an ENSO-Neutral state. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue during the next 2 months, with ENSO-neutral or La Nina conditions equally likely thereafter…”
“[CPC Models] predict a tendency for below-normal temperature for Hilo from Aug-Sep-Oct to Sep-Oct-Nov 2007, and above-normal temperature for Lihue from Sep-Oct-Nov to Dec-Jan-Feb 2008. Below-normal precipitation is predicted for all locations across Hawaii for Aug-Sep-Oct 2007, while above-normal precipitation is predicted for Hawaii from Dec-Jan-Feb to Jan-Feb-Mar 2008.”