Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2007 Vol. 13 No. 2

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State: Rainfall throughout Yap State during the first quarter of 2007 was slightly below normal at most locations. The pattern of a normal January, a dry February, and a normal March was repeated across the State. Monthly rainfall below 10 inches was recorded at all locations across Yap during all three months. In a typical pattern, Ulithi received less rainfall than Yap WSO, which, in turn, received less rainfall than Woleai. The first quarter total of 22.04 inches at Woleai was the highest recorded value in Yap State . No reports were received by the PEAC of any problems with water quantity within Yap State in the first three months of the year.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2007

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr Predicted
Yap WSO Rainfall (inches) 7.13 4.62 6.28 18.03 13.50
% of Normal 98% 85% 102% 96% 70%
Dugor* Rainfall (inches) 6.73 4.15 8.16 19.04 13.50
Gilman* Rainfall (inches) 7.18 4.55 6.26 17.99 13.50
Luweech* Rainfall (inches) 7.25 5.36 6.60 19.21 13.50
Maap* Rainfall (inches) 5.63 5.24 4.62 15.49 13.50
North Fanif* Rainfall (inches) 6.62 4.35 6.38 17.35 13.50
Rumung* Rainfall (inches) 6.83 5.33 7.80 19.96 13.50
Tamil* Rainfall (inches) 4.86 2.93 3.21 11.00 13.50
Ulithi Rainfall (inches) 6.38 3.14 4.55 14.07 11.47
% of Normal 102 % 62% 90% 86% 70%
Woleai Rainfall (inches) 6.24 6.42 9.38 22.04 21.18
% of Normal 58% 86% 113% 83% 80%
Predicted rainfall refers to forecast made in 4th Quarter 2006 PEAC Newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites.

Climate Outlook: Below normal to near normal rainfall is anticipated throughout all of Yap State during May and June. Thereafter, rainfall should be near normal for the remainder of the year. Yap has passed thought the heart of its dry season with near normal rainfall. Slightly drier than normal rainfall during the past three months has had no significant impact on water resources or agriculture. Slightly drier than normal rainfall during the past three months has had no appreciable impact on typical conditions expected during Yap’s dry season. At Yap Island and at Ulithi, the average monthly rainfall is below 10 inches during each month from November through May. At Woleai, only February and March typically have rainfall totals less than 10 inches. Island residents are still urged to participate in voluntary water conservation measures until the rainy season gets underway in June or July.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from May 2007 through April 2008 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
May – Jul 2007 (End of Dry Season)
85% 90%
Aug – Oct 2007 (Heart of Next Rainy Season)
95% 100%
Nov 2007 – Feb 2008 (Onset of Next Dry Season)
100% 100%
Feb – Apr 2008 (Heart of Next Dry Season)
90% 95%

source: UOG-WERI