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The PEAC tropical cyclone outlook for the upcoming typhoon season of 2007 is for overall activity in the basins (e.g., numbers of tropical storms, numbers of typhoons, and numbers of intense typhoons) to be below normal. The track distribution should be near normal. Islands from Pohnpei eastward into the RMI experience tropical storms and typhoons primarily during El Niño, so the risk of a damaging tropical cyclone in these locations is considered low during 2007.

The PEAC forecast considered input from two seasonal outlooks for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin: (1) The City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, under the direction of J. C-L. Chan, and (2) The Benfield Hazard Research Centre, University College London, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) research group, UK, led by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders. Both the Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research and the Tropical Storm Research consortium anticipate that the North Pacific will see slightly below average tropical activity in 2007.

The Hong Kong center, which issued its 2007 Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific on April 23, is predicting 28 total tropical cyclones (3 less than the normal 31), 25 tropical storms or typhoons (2 less than the normal 27), and 14 typhoons (3 less than the normal 17). The Hong Kong Laboratory’s forecast covers the entire western North Pacific basin.

The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) group’s Extended Range Forecast for the Northwest Pacific Typhoon Activity in 2007 was issued on March 6, 2007. The TSR group is expecting a small (15%) reduction in all categories: annual number of tropical cyclones, annual number of typhoons, annual number of intense typhoons, and the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). ACE is a measure of the total energy expended by a tropical cyclone during its life. These forecasts span the full Northwest Pacific season from January to December, although 95% of typhoons historically occur after May 1st. The activity so far in 2007 has been slightly below normal.

In the Central Pacific basin, including Hawaii , the hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. On average, between four and five tropical cyclones are observed in the Central Pacific every year. This number has ranged from zero, most recently as 1979, to as many as 11 in 1992 and 1994. The outlook for the Central Pacific is for slightly below average tropical cyclone activity this season.