Pacific ENSO Update
2nd Quarter, 2007 Vol. 13 No. 2
Federated States of Micronesia
Kosrae State: Total rainfall during the 1 st quarter of 2007 was slightly drier than normal at all Kosrae rain gage sites. The largest rainfall deficit occurred in the month of February when rainfall totals around the island were about one-half to two-thirds of February’s normal rainfall. The first quarter rainfall totals at Kosrae aligned with PEAC predictions made in the final quarter of 2006, which predicted Kosrae rainfall to be 80% of normal in the first quarter of 2007.
Kosrae Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2007
| Station | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | 1st Qtr | Predicted | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kosrae Airport (SAWRS) | Rainfall (Inches) | 16.27 | 10.20 | 14.42 | 40.89 | 39.53 |
| % of Normal | 113% | 62% | 77% | 83% | 80% | |
| Utwa* | Rainfall (Inches) | 16.19 | 6.39 | 12.40 | 34.98 | 39.53 |
| % of Normal | N/A | N/A | N/A | 71% | 80% | |
| Nautilus* | Rainfall (Inches) | 16.50 | 10.38 | 14.50 | 41.38 | 39.53 |
| % of Normal | N/A | N/A | N/A | 84% | 80% |
* Long term normal is not established for these sites
** Estimated
Climate Outlook: For the rest of 2007, rainfall amounts in Kosrae State should be near normal (typically over 15 inches per month). No tropical cyclone activity is expected for Kosrae State.
Predicted rainfall for Kosrae State from May 2007 through April 2008 is as follows:
May - Jul 2007
(End of Dry Season)
|
95% |
Aug - Oct 2007
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
|
100% |
Nov 2007 - Jan 2008
(Onset of Next Dry Season)
|
100% |
Feb - April 2008
(Heart of Next Dry Season)
|
110% |
source: UOG-WERI