State of Hawaii
Monthly Precipitation Summary

The 1st quarter of 2007 started out cool and dry for most of the state. Kona winds persisted for much of January, producing only one significant rain event for the month. More significantly, downslope enhancement of these southwesterlies produced episodes of very strong winds across portions of windward Oahu , resulting in numerous reports of damaged roofs, downed utility poles and black-outs.

The passage of two cold fronts in early February brought overnight temperatures down into the 50’s and brought periods of light to moderate showers across some areas. Rainfall for February remained below average across most of the state, with only a few windward and interior areas across the islands receiving above average rainfall.

March started out dry for most of the state, but several mid-month cold fronts brought heavy showers to portions of Oahu, Molokai and upcountry Maui . A flash flood warning was issued for Molokai the morning of March 14th, but despite heavy rains, no road closures or significant damage was reported. Trade winds returned to the islands for the last two weeks of March, bringing light showers to windward areas and overall dry conditions elsewhere.

Dry conditions across the state are reflected in the National Weather Service’s 3-month and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which indicates “moderately dry” to “very dry” conditions across portions of Kauai, Oahu and the Big Island.

Additional individual rainfall station information and specific island information for Hawaii can be found in the Monthly Precipitation Summaries.

Hawaii Rainfall Summary for Select Stations, 1st Quarter 2007

Climate Outlook:

The following is in excerpt from the Climate Prediction Center ’s official Seasonal Outlook Discussion for Hawaii ...

“The tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state. Subsurface conditions and recent forecasts indicate a possible transition to La Niña conditions within the next 3 months. [CPC’s models] predict a tendency for below normal temperature for the Hawaiian Islands for May-Jun-Jul 2007 to Aug-Sep-Oct 2007, however they give no indication of either above or below normal precipitation for Hawaii .” ***

*** Note: Dynamical forecast models historically have a difficult time producing skillful forecasts through the late spring/early summer season because of the often rapid changes in SST during that time.

Click here for a map displaying the historical global effects of La Niña on temperature and precipitation.