Pacific ENSO Update1st Quarter, 2007 Vol. 13 No. 1 |
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PEAC'S TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOKWhile the western North Pacific is quieting down, the PEAC tropical cyclone outlook for the period February through April 2007 indicates increased threat of a damaging tropical cyclone passing near the islands of American Samoa. Gale-force winds related to the close passage of a tropical cyclone or the penetration of a very active northwest monsoon into the region should occur at least once through the remainder of the hurricane season (April 2007), and could possibly occur up to 3 or 4 times. (During January 2007, two cyclones, Zita and Arthur, formed in the South Pacific east of the International Date Line. No reports of damage were received from American Samoa in association with these two cyclones.) While a direct strike is not anticipated, the risk is higher than normal. Thus, it is prudent for American Samoa to stay prepared for any developing low pressure systems.For the first half of 2007, tropical cyclone activity is anticipated to be below average in the western North Pacific. On average there are 5 numbered tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific from February through June. During El Niño there is typically more than this, and during non-El Niño years (particularly the years that follow El Niño) there are fewer than this. Based on the forecast of a slow demise of El Niño, the PEAC anticipates a relatively quiet first-half of 2007, with the risk of an early season typhoon reduced (but not eliminated) in Micronesia. |
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