Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI): The rainfall throughout the RMI during 2006 was near normal at some locations and a bit below normal at others. The 2006 annual total at WSO Majuro was 104.63 inches, or 80% of its normal. At Laura, on the southwest end of the atoll, the 2006 rainfall total was less (88.37 inches). The annual distribution of rainfall at Kwajalein closely tracked its normal pattern, and the annual total of 103.61 inches was 101% of normal. October was particularly wet there with a monthly total of 19.91 inches (167%). Mili had the highest 2006 annual total reported in the RMI of 141.16 inches which was 135% higher than at the WSO and approximately 107% if its estimated annual average. Wotje (in the northern Marshalls) had the driest 2006 annual total of 78.38 inches, which was 75% of the WSO and approximately 81% of its estimated annual average. Some hint of dryness (possibly related to El Niño) was noted in the 4th Quarter totals at most islands. The 26.45 inches at the WSO Majuro during the 4th Quarter of 2006 was only 69% of normal. Ironically, Kwajalein’s 39.49 inches (129%) in the 4th Quarter was the highest reported throughout the RMI.

El Niño-related tropical cyclone activity that was anticipated in the Marshalls during the final months of 2006 into January 2007 did not occur. Only one tropical cyclone was a problem: in early October, the tropical disturbance that became Typhoon Soulik (TC 21W) tracked close to Majuro and Kwajalein. Gusty southerly winds associated with this tropical system produced high seas that topped the seawall on the southern boundary of the Majuro Airport. Saltwater contaminated 8 million gallons of fresh water. Some of the cloud systems in the Central Pacific looked as if they could become tropical cyclones that would affect the Marshall Islands, but no significant cyclone moved across the region. Paka (1997) was the last tropical cyclone of typhoon intensity to pass through the Marshall Islands. Ioke (early September 2006) was a potent threat, and did considerable damage to Wake Island.

RMI Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2006

Climate Outlook: During El Niño, the rainfall pattern in the RMI is very complex. Usually the northern islands of the RMI enter a prolonged dry spell for the first several months in the year that follows the El Niño year. The central RMI (this includes Majuro) often are quite dry and the southern RMI and the islands of Kiribati can be wetter. Majuro had a severe dry spell lasting 4 or 5 months in early 1983, 1992 and 1998. During other notable El Niño events, Majuro did not suffer such a prolonged dry spell (for example: early 1973 and early 1977). Any atoll in the northern RMI may experience a month or two of abnormally dry weather at any time during the period February through May 2007, after which rainfall amounts should return to near normal. All residents of RMI are urged to participate in voluntary water conservation measures, and should make all reasonable repairs and routine maintenance to rain catchments and other drinking water infrastructure. At this time, the dry conditions are not expected to be as bad as those in 1998. The islands in the northern RMI are usually quite dry during the first three months of the year anyway, with less than 5 inches per month experienced at Kwajalein (and other northern atolls) in each of January, February, and March. By May, the monthly rainfall rises to near 10 inches, and is over 10 inches per month from July through November. Wotje and Utirik are normally a little drier. The possible effects of El Niño on the rainfall in the northern RMI over the next several months may be to cut the totals in February through April to roughly 2 to 4 inches per month, then slightly delay the normal return of heavier rains in May, and possibly into June. By July the rainfall will recover to near normal.

Predicted rainfall for the RMI from February 2007 through January 2008 is as follows:

source: UOG-WERI