Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2007 Vol. 13 No. 1

Palau Flag Republic of Palau: The rainfall throughout most of Palau during 2006 was near normal. The 2006 annual totals at the WSO and at Nekken were almost identical (157.02 versus 157.44 inches), whereas at the Palau International Airport (only a short distance between these two locations), there was considerably more rainfall (180.35 inches). Almost 13 inches of this difference occurred in the months of January, June and July when the airport had 4 to 5 inches more in each of these months than at Koror or Nekken. Peleliu was the driest reporting location in the Republic of Palau with its 2006 annual total of 120.38 inches. It was drier at Peleliu than at Koror for 10 out of the 12 months of the year. Though a long-term mean has not been officially established for Peleliu, it appears from recent year’s data that the rainfall there is roughly 80 to 90% of the rainfall at Koror.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2006

Station   Oct. Nov. Dec. 4th Qtr 2006 Total
Koror WSO Rainfall (inches) 10.73 5.41 10.97 27.11 157.02
% of Normal 80% 47% 89% 72% 106%

Nekken*

Rainfall (inches) 11.10 9.64 11.96 32.70 157.44
International
Airport *
Rainfall (inches) 10.52 8.79 13.07 32.38 180.35
Peleliu* Rainfall (inches) 8.12 6.54 8.92 23.58 120.38
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook: Dry conditions related to the El Niño should not affect the Republic of Palau too harshly, since much of the dryness at Palau often occurs in the 4 th Quarter of the El Niño year as evidenced by October and November rainfall deficits. Any island within the Republic of Palau may experience a month or two of abnormally dry weather at any time during the period February through April 2007, after which rainfall amounts should return to near normal. Residents of Palau are urged to participate in voluntary water conservation measures, and should make all reasonable repairs and routine maintenance to rain catchments and other drinking water infrastructure. At this time, the dry conditions are not expected to be anywhere near as bad as those in 1998. Palau has a complex pattern of monthly rainfall with the highest average rainfall in the months of June and July; the lowest average rainfall in the months of February, March and April; and a secondary minimum in September. The average rainfall in Palau in each of the months February through April is less than 10 inches, and then jumps to nearly 12 in May, and to over 17 inches in June. The possible effects of El Niño on the rainfall in Palau over the next several months may be to cut the totals in February through April to roughly 6 to 8 inches per month, then slightly delay the normal return of heavier rains in May. The normal June and July seasonal peak of rainfall should arrive on schedule.

Predicted rainfall for Palau from February 2007 through January 2008 is as follows:  

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall
Feb - Apr 2007
75%
May - Jun 2007
90%
Jul - Oct 2007
100%
Nov 2007 - Jan 2008
100%

source: UOG-WERI