Pacific ENSO Update
1st Quarter, 2007 Vol. 13 No. 1
State of Hawaii
Monthly Precipitation Summary
According to the National Weather Service’s Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), 4th quarter rainfall was near average across most of the state, while portions of Hawaii, Lanai and Kaui experienced moderately dry conditions. Windward and Upcountry Maui experienced moderately wet conditions for the 3-month period.
The first half of the 2006-2007 Hawaiian wet season (October through April) started strong and produced several heavy rain and flash flood events across the state, with heavy rains causing road and highway closures on the Big Island and Maui between October 16-20. The beginning of November was marked by heavy rains along the east-facing slopes of Kauai, Maui,
and Oahu. Saturated grounds along the Koolau Range of Oahu helped trigger a large
landslide on November 1 which closed the Pali Highway Tunnel (linking windward and
leeward Oahu) for most of the day. On November 2, flash flooding closed several central valley roads and nearly swept a young Maui boy
out to sea near Peahi between Haiku and Pauwela. Heavy showers over portions of north and central Maui resulted in flash
flooding, road closures, and some property damage at Maui County’s Baldwin Park between Dec 1-3. The rains also triggered a mudslide on the Haleakala Highway between the Hana Highway and Haliimaile Road. Following the heavy rains, trade winds persisted through December 23 with trade strength increasing to strong levels on December 8 and 15. The December 8 wind episode knocked down some trees and damaged a few roofs and utility poles in Honolulu.
Hawaii Rainfall Summary for Select Stations, 4th Quarter 2006
| Station | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | 4th Qtr | 2006 Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hilo Airport | Rainfall (inches) | 7.42 | 3.21 | 6.66 | 17.29 | 113.18 |
| % of Normal | 77% | 21% | 63% | 54% | 94% |
| Honolulu Airport | Rainfall (inches) | 2.50 | 2.61 | 0.58 | 1.89 | 29.61 |
| % of Normal | 115% | 115% | 20% | 83% | 140% |
| Kahului Airport | Rainfall (inches) | 4.16 | 3.04 | 3.25 | 10.45 | 18.61 |
| % of Normal | 396% | 140% | 106% | 214% | 96% |
| Lihue Airport | Rainfall (inches) | 3.71 | 2.98 | 0.59 | 7.28 | 66.48 |
| % of Normal | 87% | 63% | 12% | 54% | 171% |
Additional individual rainfall station information and specific island information for Hawaii can be found in the Monthly Precipitation Summaries which are located online at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/hydrology.php .
Climate Outlook:
According to the Climate Prediction Center's official 90 day outlook for Hawaii, dynamic and statistical models indicate a tendency toward below normal temperature for Hawaii from JFM (January-February-March) to FMA (Febuary-March-April) 2007. The models indicate a tendency towards below normal precipitation from JFM (January-February-March) to FMA (Febuary-March-April) 2007. Short term global climate flucuations such as the ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) phenomenon are found to play an important role in the climate variability in Hawaii. During the late winter and spring of ENSO events, drier-than-average conditions can be expected in Hawaii.