Pacific ENSO Update
1st Quarter, 2007 Vol. 13 No. 1
Federated States of Micronesia
Chuuk State: Rainfall throughout Chuuk State during 2006 was near normal, with annual totals throughout the state mostly within the range of 120 to 150 inches. Rainfall at Polowat was considerably drier than at the WSO, and the 2006 annual total there of 97.39 inches was the lowest annual total recorded in Chuuk State . Substantial month-to-month rainfall variations associated with the MJO were observed on some of the islands of Chuuk State during 2006. For example, the September totals were less than 10 inches on some Islands following August totals that were close to 20 inches. Otherwise, 2006 was rather uneventful.
Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2006
| Station | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | 4th Qtr | 2006 Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuuk WSO | Rainfall (inches) | 9.00 | 14.06 | 12.40 | 35.47 | 143.09 |
| % of Normal | 64% | 132% | 114% | 103% | 103% | |
Piis Panew* |
Rainfall (inches) | 8.01 | 8.43 | 3.78 | 20.22 | 91.35 |
| Xavier High School * | Rainfall (inches) | 10.24 | 12.58 | 11.75 | 34.57 | 140.62** |
Lukunoch* |
Rainfall (inches) | 10.35 |
12.32 | 8.65 | 31.32 | 133.43 |
| Ettal* | Rainfall (inches) | 7.88 | 8.54 | 7.04 | 23.46 | 121.95 |
Ta* |
Rainfall (inches) | 5.93 | 8.79 | 5.74 | 20.49 | 120.65 |
Fananu* |
Rainfall (inches) | 11.98 | 7.80 | 12.37 | 32.15 | 118.83 |
| Onoun* | Rainfall (inches) | 11.36 | 14.07 | 11.44 | 36.87 | 120.57 |
Losap* |
Rainfall (inches) | 10.53 | 9.90 | 12.54 | 32.97 | 137.72 |
Nama* |
Rainfall (inches) | 11.43 | 11.66 | 13.04 | 36.13 | 152.87 |
Polowat |
Rainfall (inches) | 5.65 | 9.31 | 3.72 | 18.68 | 97.39 |
| % of Normal | % | % | % | % | % |
** Estimated
Climate Outlook: The anticipated onset of widespread El Niño-related dry conditions during November and December did not occur, and rainfall in the 4th Quarter of 2006 was near normal. This is important, since dry conditions are still likely to occur throughout Chuuk State for the next 3 to 4 months. Rainfall in Chuuk State typically is below normal through March or April of the year following El Niño. Residents of Chuuk State are urged to participate in voluntary water conservation measures, and make all reasonable repairs and routine maintenance to rain catchments and other drinking water infrastructure. At this time, the dry conditions are not expected to be as bad as those experienced during 1998. Rainfall amounts should recover to near normal by May or June of 2007.
Predicted rainfall for Chuuk State from February 2007 through January 2008 is as follows:
Chuuk Lagoon, Losap and Nama |
Polowat |
Northern Island |
Mortlocks |
|
Feb - Apr 2007 |
70% |
70% |
70% |
70% |
May - Jul 2007 |
90% |
85% |
85% |
90% |
Aug - Oct 2007 |
95% |
95% |
95% |
100% |
Nov 2007 - Jan 2008 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
source: UOG-WERI