PEAC'S TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Western North Pacific

The PEAC tropical cyclone outlook for the period November 2006 through January 2007 is for tropical cyclone development and movement patterns within Micronesia to be displaced toward the east with the development of 2 or three TCs in the region Marshall Islands westward to the north of Kosrae. These TCs may be accompanied by Southern Hemisphere twins. Such cyclones pose an increased threat to Guam and the CNMI.

Hawaii

For Hawaii, the forecast for the rest of the tropical cyclone season (through November 30, 2006) continues to be for a slightly below average cyclone season with 2 or 3 tropical cyclones in the Pacific basin.

South Pacific

Beginning in November and continuing through next April or May, the threat of a hurricane passing near American Samoa is increased. At least 2 or 3 tropical cyclones should pass close enough to American Samoa during this period to bring northwesterly gales to its territorial waters. A direct strike is not anticipated, but the risk is higher than normal.