Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI): During the 3 rd quarter of 2006, rainfall throughout the RMI was slightly drier than normal. During the summer and fall of 2006, the central North Pacific had its first named tropical cyclone (Ioke) since 2004. In early October, the tropical disturbance that became Typhoon Soulik tracked close to Majuro and Kwajalein; gusty winds from the storm produced high seas that topped the seawall on the Southern boundary of Majuro Airport (see Tropical Cyclone Summary).

Climate Outlook:

While the RMI normally has a very low risk of a tropical storm or typhoon during any month of the year. However, due to El Niño, there is a 50% risk that a numbered tropical depression or a named tropical storm will pass through the RMI between November 2006 and January 2007. Notable tropical cyclones occurring in the RMI during EL Niño include Typhoon Zelda (NOV 1991) and Typhoon Paka (DEC 1997).

During El Niño, the rainfall pattern in the RMI is very complex. Usually the northern islands of the RMI enter a prolonged dry spell for the first several months in the year that follows the El Niño year. The central RMI (including Majuro) are often quite dry while the southern RMI and Kiribati are wetter. Majuro had a severe dry spell lasting 4 or 5 months in early 1983, 1992 and 1998. During other notable El Niño events, Majuro did not suffer such a prolonged dry spell (for example: early 1973 and early 1977).

Residents of the RMIshould begin water conservation measures by the end of November, and make all reasonable repairs and routine maintenance to rain catchments and other drinking water infrastructure. At this time, the dry conditions are not expected to be as bad as those experienced during 1998.

Predicted rainfall for the RMI from November 2006 through October 2007 is as follows:

source: UOG-WERI