Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Rainfall averaged close to normal on Kosrae during the 3rd quarter of 2006 due primarily to a very wet July. As on Guam and other islands of Micronesia, sharp month-to month differences (possibly related to MJO) were experienced. Kosrae’s approximately 50-inch rainfall totals for the 3rd quarter of 2006 were similar to totals experienced at many other locations throughout Micronesia during this period. Quite often (especially when other islands are experiencing their dry seasons), Kosrae rainfall totals are the highest in all of Micronesia. For example, during the first-half of 2006, rainfall at Tofol (a village on the east side of the island) was 106.55 inches and this was the highest rainfall total recorded in Micronesia for that time period.

Climate Outlook:

The risk of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon is unlikely at Kosrae through the first half of 2007. Because of El Niño, it is possible that a tropical cyclone could form in the Marshall Islands sometime between November 2006 and January 2007, but any such storm should pass to the north of Kosrae State, perhaps bringing gusty westerly winds and a day or two of heavy rainfall.

Dry conditions related to the El Niño that began in the 2nd half of 2006 should not affect Kosrae too harshly. Most islands from Pohnpei Island eastward into the Marshall Islands could, however, experience a month or two of abnormally dry weather between November 2006 and April 2007, after which rainfall amounts should return to near normal. As a precaution, residents of Kosrae State should make all reasonable repairs and routine maintenance to rain catchments and other drinking water infrastructure. At this time, the dry conditions are not expected to be as bad as those experienced during 1998.

Predicted rainfall for Kosrae State from November 2006 through October 2007 is as follows:

source: UOG-WERI