Climate Outlook:

In the final 2 months of 2006 through January 2007, approximately 2 or 3 numbered tropical cyclones are expected to pass north of Chuuk State. The near passage of a tropical cyclone may produce gale-force winds and an extreme daily rainfall total of 5 inches or more at some locations. While no direct strikes by a typhoon of any island or atoll of Chuuk State is expected during 2006, residents should always be prepared for the possibility.

During a typical El Niño, rainfall in Chuuk State tends to drop below normal by November, and remain below normal through March or April of the year following El Niño. Residents of Chuuk State should begin water conservation measures by the end of November, and make all reasonable repairs and routine maintenance to rain catchments and other drinking water infrastructure. At this time, the dry conditions are not expected to be as bad as those experienced during 1998. Rainfall amounts should recover to near normal by May or June of 2007.

Predicted rainfall for Chuuk State from November 2006 through October 2007 is as follows:

source: UOG-WERI