Pacific ENSO Update
4th Quarter, 2006 Vol. 12 No. 4
Federated States of Micronesia
Chuuk State: The Chuuk WSO recorded 55.90 inches of rainfall during the 3rd quarter of 2006. This was 146% of normal, and was the highest 3-month rainfall total among all the recording locations in Chuuk State. Though the 3rd quarter totals everywhere were lower than at the Chuuk WSO, the readings at most sites in Chuuk State were still moderate, with values generally ranging between 45 to 55 inches. Only at Polowat and Ettal were the 3-month totals less than 40 inches. Substantial month-to-month rainfall variations associated with the MJO (that were very pronounced on Guam) were also observed on some of the islands of Chuuk State. Following August totals that were close to 20 inches, the September totals were less than 10 inches on some islands, following August totals that were close to 20 inches. Polowat, which tends to be among the drier locations in Chuuk State had 38.35 inches during the 3rd quarter of 2006, which was roughly 91% of normal for that location.
Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2006
| Station | Jul. | Aug | Sep. | 3rd Qtr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuuk WSO | Rainfall (inches) | 13.43 | 20.42 | 22.05 | 55.09 |
| % of Normal | 102% | 140% | 191% | 146% | |
Piis Panew* |
Rainfall (inches) | 15.17 | 7.56 | 15.06 | 37.79 |
| Xavier High School * | Rainfall (inches) | 13.50** | 20.59 | 16.22 | 50.31 |
Lukunoch* |
Rainfall (inches) | 14.26 |
22.45 | 9.54 | 46.25 |
| Ettal | Rainfall (inches) | 16.47 | 12.74 | 7.17 | 36.38 |
Ta* |
Rainfall (inches) | 13.68 | 14.38 | 12.03 | 40.09 |
Fananu* |
Rainfall (inches) | 18.00 | 17.41 | 9.74 | 45.15 |
| Onoun* | Rainfall (inches) | 17.89 | 24.67 | 7.27 | 49.83 |
Losap* |
Rainfall (inches) | 18.09 | 22.24 | 12.90 | 53.23 |
Nama* |
Rainfall (inches) | 15.78 | 21.97 | 16.33 | 54.08 |
Polowat |
Rainfall (inches) | 21.96 | 8.96 | 7.43 | 38.35 |
| % of Normal | 157% | 60% | 56% | 91% |
** Estimated
Climate Outlook:
In the final 2 months of 2006 through January 2007, approximately 2 or 3 numbered tropical cyclones are expected to pass north of Chuuk State. The near passage of a tropical cyclone may produce gale-force winds and an extreme daily rainfall total of 5 inches or more at some locations. While no direct strikes by a typhoon of any island or atoll of Chuuk State is expected during 2006, residents should always be prepared for the possibility.
During a typical El Niño, rainfall in Chuuk State tends to drop below normal by November, and remain below normal through March or April of the year following El Niño. Residents of Chuuk State should begin water conservation measures by the end of November, and make all reasonable repairs and routine maintenance to rain catchments and other drinking water infrastructure. At this time, the dry conditions are not expected to be as bad as those experienced during 1998. Rainfall amounts should recover to near normal by May or June of 2007.
Predicted rainfall for Chuuk State from November 2006 through October 2007 is as follows:
Chuuk Lagoon, Losap and Nama |
Polowat |
Hall Island |
Mortlocks |
|
Nov - Dec 2006 |
95% |
90% |
90% |
95% |
Jan - Mar 2007 |
75% |
70% |
70% |
80% |
Apr - Jun 2007 |
90% |
85% |
85% |
90% |
Jul - Oct 2007 |
100% |
100% |
90% |
100% |
source: UOG-WERI