Pacific ENSO Update
3rd Quarter, 2006 Vol. 12 No. 3
Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI): During the 2nd Quarter of 2006, the very dry conditions in the northern RMI abated somewhat, especially at Kwajalein where there was 11.54 inches of rain in May. Islands in the central and southern portion of the RMI had abundant rains, especially on those islands south of Majuro. Mili reported the highest rainfall in the RMI for both the 2nd Quarter (36.23 inches) and for the first half of the year (67.13 inches).
RMI Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter 2006
| Station | Apr. | May | Jun. | Quarterly Total |
1st half Total |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central and Southern Atolls | ||||||
| Majuro WSO | Rainfall (inches) | 7.31 | 6.29 | 11.55 | 25.15 | 48.54 |
| % of Normal | 71% | 56% | 100% | 76% | 87% | |
| Laura* | Rainfall (inches) | 8.39 | 3.79 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Arno* | Rainfall (inches) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alinglaplap* | Rainfall (inches) | 9.92 | 10.86 | 10.23 | 31.01 | 57.06 |
| % of Normal | 111% | 103% | 96% | 103% | 120% | |
| Mili* | Rainfall (inches) | 12.17 | 11.60 | 12.46 | 36.23 | 67.13 |
| % of Normal | 118% | 104% | 108% | 110% | 120% | |
| Northern Atolls | ||||||
| Kwajalein | Rainfall (inches) | 5.81 | 11.54 | 7.06 | 24.41 | 33.69 |
| % of Normal | 77% | 116% | 73% | 90% | 86% | |
Utirik |
Rainfall (inches) | 1.50 | 3.11 | 2.75 | 7.36 | 9.82 |
| % of Normal | 23% | 37% | 34% | 32% | 30% | |
|
Wotje |
Rainfall (inches) | 2.65 | 5.34 | 6.11 | 14.05 | 21.17 |
| % of Normal | 37% | 56% | 67% | 54% | 57% | |
Climate Outlook:
The RMI has a very low risk of a tropical storm or typhoon during 2006. There is a slight chance that a tropical depression or weak tropical storm could move from the central Pacific into the Marshall Islands during late August through early October. From October through December 2006, the monsoon trough may extend into the central and southern RMI to allow for some episodes of heavy rainfall from tropical disturbances
The northern atolls of the RMI have been generally drier than normal for a long time. It should not be quite as dry in the northern RMI through the next half of 2006. The central and southern atolls should have near normal rainfall. Next year’s dry season in the northern RMI is once again anticipated to be drier than average.
Predicted rainfall for the RMI from July 2006 through Jun 2007 is as follows:
| S. of 6°N |
6°N to 8°N |
N. of 8°N | |
| Jul - Sep 2006 | 100% | 105% | 100% |
| Oct - Dec 2006 | 110% | 110% | 100% |
| Jan - Mar 2007 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Apr - Jun 2007 | 100% | 100% | 90% |
source: UOG-WERI