Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2006 Vol. 12 No. 3

HI Flag
Hawaii: For the State of Hawaii, the 2nd Quarter of 2006 was much drier than the extremely wet 1st Quarter. In April most of the gauges across Kauai County, Maui County and the Island of Hawaii recorded below normal totals. On Oahu, rainfall ranged from well below normal to above normal. In May, the northern half of the state (Oahu and Kauai) tended to be drier and the southern half (Maui County and the Island of Hawaii) tended to be in the near to above normal range. In June, most of the stations throughout the state recorded below normal rainfall. Additional individual rainfall station information and specific island information for Hawaii can be found in the Monthly Precipitation Summaries which are located online at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/hydrology.php .

Although the 2nd quarter totals have been drier than normal, the overall rainfall for the 1st half of 2006 remains near to above normal for most of the state. This is due to the extremely wet conditions in the first half of 2006. For nearly 7 weeks between the middle of Feb. and the beginning of April, most of Hawaii had an unprecedented extended wet period. During March several stations (Waimanalo, Pahala, Moloaa) broke their March record and Lihue had its wettest month ever with 36.13 inches of rain (1009% of normal). More detailed information on this event is located on line at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/events/weeksrain/weeksrainsummary.php

Additional individual rainfall station information and specific island information for Hawaii can be found in the Monthly Precipitation Summaries which are located online at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/hydrology.php .


Hawaii Rainfall Summary (for select stations) 2nd Quarter 2006
Station   Apr. May Jun. Quarterly Total 1st half Total
Lihue Airport Rainfall (inches) 1.31 1.31 0.77 5.83 50.04
% of Normal 44% 46% 42% 44% 205%
Honolulu Airport Rainfall (inches) .75 1.15 0.09 1.33 23.12
% of Normal 68% 147% 21% 86% 249%
Kahului Airport Rainfall (inches) .20 .75 .03 .92 6.58
% of Normal 11% 114% 13% 37% 59%
Hilo Airport Rainfall (inches) 8.69 22.51 4.19 34.53 81.69
% of Normal 69% 279% 57% 96% 134%

Climate Outlook:
According to the Climate Prediction Center's official forecast for Hawaii, dynamical and statistical tools predict a tendency towards below normal temperatures from ASO (August-September-October) 2006 to SON (September-October-November) 2006. The Climate Predictions Center's dynamical and statistical tools give equal chances for above normal rainfall, near normal rainfall and below normal rainfall for the next several seasons. This forecast reflects the difficulty in predicting rainfall patterns during non El Nino and non La Nina years.