In early July, rainfall was abundant as Tropical Depression 05W resulted in up to 4 inches of rain in its two-day passage on the 7 th and 8 th of July. Hazardous surf on the west side of Guam generated by two tropical cyclones (Ewiniar (04W) and Bilis (05W)) and the monsoon winds south of them claimed the life of a 15-year-old boy.

Rainfall totals at stations in the CNMI during the first half of 2006 were generally dry, especially in the 2nd Quarter when several three-month totals were less than half of normal. The monthly distribution of the rainfall in the CNMI was similar to that on Guam where the 1 st Quarter totals were a little bit wetter than normal, and the 2nd Quarter totals were very dry. The 14.91 inches of rain at the Tinian Airport during the 1st half of 2006 was one of the lowest readings in all of Micronesia for this time period. Saipan Airport was the only station to report above normal rainfall during the first half of 2006 (mainly due to a wet January and February).

Climate Outlook:

After a brief flirt with La Niña conditions in early 2006, the climate system has returned to ENSO-neutral. Many climate parameters (e.g., the number of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin, the paths taken by tropical storms and typhoons, and the rainfall throughout most of Micronesia) are anticipated to be near normal. An observed shift of tropical cyclone tracks to the west of normal through early July should relax by fall, and thus the threat of a typhoon for Guam and the CNMI should be what is typical for these islands: during the remainder of 2006 (and especially during the months of September through December) two or three tropical storms and one or two typhoons should pass within 200 miles of any Guam and CNMI location. The odds of typhoon force winds (or greater) at any location on Guam or in the CNMI during any given year (status of ENSO not considered) are approximately 1 in 7. During El Nino years, the odds of typhoon force winds on Guam or on any individual island in the CNMI rise to about 1 in 3. During non-El Nino years the odds fall back to around 1 in 10. Dangerous surf from a typhoon does not require that the typhoon pass close to any location, so it is certain that at least one episode of dangerous typhoon-generated waves will occur. Every year several lives are lost due to hazardous surf and the rip currents produced by them.

Rainfall is anticipated to be near normal for Guam and the CNMI during the upcoming rainy season. Depending on the tropical cyclone activity in the fall, it is possible that some locations could see above normal rainfall in the months of September through December. Predicted rainfall for the Mariana Islands from July 2006 through June 2007 is as follows: