Climate Outlook:

The tropical cyclone threat for 2006 should be near normal, with the greatest threat occurring in the months of October through January 2007. Most of the numbered tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin through July 2006 began as tropical disturbances passing through Chuuk State where they provided some episodes of heavy rainfall. This weather pattern should continue through September 2006, with tropical disturbances providing short (2-4 day) periods of heavy rain showers in Chuuk State, interspersed with dry breaks of up to one week in duration. In the latter three months of the year, tropical disturbances should continue to form near Chuuk, but the point at which they become tropical storms should extend eastward, resulting in an increase chance of gale force winds and extreme rainfall events (10 inches or more in 24 hours) in Chuuk State. From October 2006 through January 2007, approximately 2 or 3 numbered tropical cyclones should pass through Chuuk State causing gales on some islands and heavy rainfall throughout most of the region. The threat of a direct strike by a typhoon at any island or atoll in Chuuk State is roughly one-third to one-half that of Guam and the CNMI. While we expect no direct strikes by a typhoon of any island or atoll of Chuuk State during 2006, residents should always be prepared for the possibility.

As a result of a normal distribution of tropical disturbances, and other weather patterns that govern the rainfall in Micronesia, rainfall amounts should be near normal on most islands and atolls of Chuuk State for the next 3 to 6 months. In the final 3 months of 2006, several tropical disturbances, one or two tropical depressions and one or two tropical storms could form in Chuuk State bringing some heavy rain events that would push the 2006 annual rainfall totals to slightly above normal at some islands.

Predictions for Chuuk State from July 2006 through June 2007 are as follows: