PEAC'S TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK SUMMARY

The preliminary PEAC tropical cyclone outlook for the first half of 2006 is for tropical cyclone development and movement patterns for Micronesia to be displaced toward the west in response to a weakening La Niña. Only Palau and Yap have an increased chance for tropical cyclone activity in this early timeframe, and this activity should be less than typhoon intensity for these islands. During the second half of the year, tropical cyclone activity should trend towards normal except in the eastern half of Micronesia (Pohnpei, Kosrae, RMI) where the threat of a strong tropical storm or a typhoon should be less than average. western North Pacific typically experiences two or three tropical cyclones through April of the calendar year. Early season tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific is enhanced during El Niño years, and suppressed in the years that follow El Niño. During La Niña, basin-wide tropical cyclone numbers may be near normal, but the activity is typically shifted to the west.