Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2006 Vol. 12 No. 2

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: There was a north-south gradient of rainfall across the islands of Pohnpei State during the 1st Quarter of 2006, with the islands located further south generally experiencing more rainfall than those islands and atolls further north. With respect to the Pohnpei WSO, most recording locations on Pohnpei Island and at all other recording locations in the outer islands of Pohnpei State received more rain. The 1st Quarter rainfall total of 46.76 inches at Nukuoro was the highest reading in Pohnpei Stare, followed by 44.78 inches at Kapingamarangi. At most locations throughout Pohnpei State, the month of February was the driest of the first three months of 2006. Pohnpei Island would have had an even drier February if it weren’t for heavy rains at the end of the month.

On the southern atolls of Pohnpei State, the rainfall during the 1st Quarter of 2006 was abundant. Kapingamarangi has been wetter than normal for a long time, and continued to be very wet through the 1st Quarter of 2006.

Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2006
Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. Total
Pohnpei Island
Pohnpei WSO Rainfall (inches) 9.24 8.88 7.96 26.08
% of Normal 71% 82% 59% 70%
Palikir* Rainfall (inches) 16.66 11.49 11.07 39.22
Song Kroun* Rainfall (inches) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Atolls of Pohnpei State
Nukuoro Rainfall (inches) 17.96 10.12 18.68 46.76
% of Normal 153% 96% 137% 130%
Pingelap Rainfall (inches) 17.89 7.98 9.21 35.08
% of Normal 145% 65% 64% 90%
Mwokilloa* Rainfall (inches) 11.66 6.15 8.61 26.42
Kapingamarangi Rainfall (inches) 13.45 16.98 14.35 44.78
% of Normal 129% 165% 103% 129%
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook:

With ENSO neutral conditions following the earlier weak La Nina conditions this year, the risk of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon would be very unlikely at any island in Pohnpei State during 2006. The very early stages of developing tropical cyclones may bring some episodes of heavy rain to Pohnpei, but these systems should not become tropical storms or typhoons until they are well away from Pohnpei.

Primarily as a result of very dry conditions in February 2006, the rainfall at most Pohnpei locations was less than anticipated for the 1st Quarter of 2006. The rainfall at Kapingamarangi, however, continued to exceed expectations. The trade wind trough should migrate slowly northward in April and May. Thus, abundant rains should continue on atolls located farthest south and reach Pohnpei Island by May.

Predicted rainfall for Pohnpei State from May 2006 through April 2007 is as follows:

 
Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average
Pohnpei Islands and Atolls
Kapingamarangi
Apr - Jun 2006
110%
110%
Jul - Sep 2006
100%
100%
Oct - Dec 2006
110%
95%
Jan - Apr 2007
100%
95%
Source: UOG-WERI