Republic of Palau: The rainfall distribution in Micronesia during the first three months of 2006 was characterized by a sharp north-south gradient (north dry, south wet) superimposed on a gradual east-west gradient (east dry, west wet) related to La Niña circulation anomalies and an active Australian Northwest Monsoon. When the Australian Northwest Monsoon was very active during February, it reduced the rainfall throughout much of Micronesia . At its location further south than many islands of Micronesia , and also furthest to the west, Palau had abundant rainfall in the 1 st Quarter of 2006. The month of February (when the Australian Monsoon was very active) was the driest of the three months on Palau . The WSO Koror had 1 st Quarter 2006 rainfall total of 40.09 inches that was 143% of normal. 1st Quarter rainfall amounts were not quite so heavy at Nekken (35.93 inches), and at Peleliu (31.93 inches), but were somewhat higher only a few miles away at the Palau International Airport (46.58”).

Because of the strong westward shift in tropical cyclone formation during 2005 that has continued into 2006, Palau was in the path of some of the few tropical disturbances that moved from western Micronesia towards the Philippines. One of these disturbances became the first numbered tropical cyclone of 2006 (TC 01W), which passed well south of Koror , Palau in early March. This tendency should continue, with Palau experiencing episodes of heavy rains from tropical disturbances in the next few months.

Climate Outlook:

La Niña conditions that persisted through the beginning of 2006 may push the formation region of tropical cyclones westward, and Palau may be affected by many tropical disturbances that will contribute to abundant rainfall. In general, most tropical storms and typhoons that move past Palau stay well to the north, but westerly gales, heavy rain showers, and rough seas are often experienced as they move by. During 2006, there should be several episodes of heavy rainfall and two or three occurrences of gusty westerly winds and rough seas from tropical cyclones passing to the north, as the focus of the basin’s tropical cyclone activity is shifted to the west of normal.

Rainfall throughout Palau is anticipated to be wetter than normal for most months of the year.

Predicted rainfall for Palau from May 2006 through April 2007 is as follows: