Figure 3 . CCA Cross-Validation Skill in AMJ, MJJ, and JJA
Cross Validation Skill

Forecast quality is a measure of the expected CCA cross-validation correlation skill. In general terms, these forecasts are thought to be of useful skill (or at least fair skill) if the CCA cross-validation value is greater than 0.3. Higher skills correspond to greater expected accuracy of the forecasts. Skill levels greater than 0.4 and 0.5 are thought to be moderate and good, while skill levels greater than 0.6 and .8 are thought to be strong and very strong respectively.