Climate Outlook:

The tropical cyclone threat for 2006 should be near normal, with the greatest threat occurring in the months of September through December. One or two tropical depressions may form within Chuuk State during May and June of 2006 bringing heavy rainfall, but then moving northwestward out of Chuuk State before becoming tropical storms. In the latter half of 2006, approximately 2 or 3 tropical cyclones should pass through Chuuk State causing gales to some islands and heavy rainfall throughout most of the region. The odds of a direct strike by a typhoon at any island or atoll in Chuuk State is roughly 1 in 15 to 1 in 20 for any given year. While we expect no direct strikes by a typhoon of any island or atoll of Chuuk State during 2005, residents should always be prepared for the possibility.

The rainfall at most Chuuk locations was less than anticipated for the 1st Quarter of 2006; this was primarily due to very dry conditions in February 2006. The trade wind trough should migrate slowly northward in May. Thus, abundant rains should eventually overspread all of Chuuk, beginning first with atolls located furthest south and working northward to the northern atolls by the end of May. Rainfall at islands and atolls of the Chuuk Lagoon and on the other atolls of Chuuk State should be slightly wetter than normal during the second half of 2006.

Predictions for Chuuk State from May 2006 through April 2007 are as follows: