Climate Outlook:
Although American Samoa is nearing the onset of its dry season, computer forecasts and a consensus of outlooks from several regional meteorological centers indicate that rainfall in American Samoa is likely to remain above normal for at least the next three months. Long-range computer rainfall forecasts, however, have only limited skill in the tropical Pacific islands.

One more tropical cyclone may form within the area from Fiji to Samoa in the next two months. Any such cyclone, however, is anticipated to move to the southeast and spare Samoa from any damaging effects. Thus, the threat of a damaging tropical cyclone in any of the islands of American Samoa is essentially over until the next rainy season (2006-07) when a normal distribution of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific region near American Samoa is anticipated. Normal cyclone activity for an entire rainy season indicates that two or three named tropical cyclones would pass to the south of American Samoa producing episodes of heavy rainfall and gale force northwesterly winds.