Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2006 Vol. 12 No. 1

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State:  The total 2005 annual rainfall at the WSO on Yap Island was near normal at 116.62 inches (97%). Annual rainfall totals for 2005 at other recording locations on Yap Island were near to slightly greater than the WSO, and ranged from a low of 113.37 at Maap to a high of 135.18 at Gilman. At Ulithi, the 2005 annual total of 94.26 inches was 92% of normal. The highest annual rainfall recorded in Yap State during 2005 was the 143.13 inches (103%) measured at Woleai, which (at its more southern location) is normally wetter than Ulithi and Yap Island.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2005
Station   Oct. Nov. Dec. Total Annual
Yap WSO Rainfall (inches)
3.33
11.64
9.87
24.84
116.62
% of Normal
28%
128%
110%
83%
97%
Dugor* Rainfall (inches)
6.86
11.99
14.00
32.85
123.69
Gilman* Rainfall (inches)
4.60
13.15
10.31
28.06
135.18
Luweech* Rainfall (inches)
2.96
11.66
9.79
24.41
128.68
Maap* Rainfall (inches)
7.90
9.40
11.43
28.73
113.37
North Fanif* Rainfall (inches)
8.62
8.76
12.83
30.21
115.62
Rumrung Rainfall (inches)
10.69
9.98
13.97
34.64
132.73
Tamil* Rainfall (inches)
5.13
9.74
13.42
28.29
120.78
Ulithi Rainfall (inches)
6.50
6.74
6.20
19.44
94.26
% of Normal
64%
87%
81%
77%
92%
Woleai Rainfall (inches)
7.17
9.20
20.02
36.93
143.13
% of Normal
53%
85%
175%
103%
103%
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook:

The tropical cyclone threat for 2006 should be near normal, with the greatest threat occurring in the months of September through December. One or two tropical storms may form near Yap in the first half of 2006 bringing heavy rainfall. In the latter half of 2006, approximately 2 or 3 tropical cyclones should pass close enough to Yap (and/or its outer islands) to cause gales. The threat of a direct strike by a typhoon at Yap Island and at Ulithi is roughly one-half to two-thirds that of Guam and the CNMI. The threat is even less further south at Woleai. While we expect no direct strikes by a typhoon of any island or atoll of Yap State during 2006, residents should always be prepared for the possibility.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from January 2006 through December 2006 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
Jan – May 2005 (The Dry Season) 115% 125%
Jun – Oct 2006 (Heart of Next Rainy Season) 110% 110%
Nov – Dec 2006 (Onset of next dry Season) 100% 100%
source: UOG-WERI