Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI): There was a large north-south gradient of rainfall in the RMI during 2005, with the northern RMI experiencing very dry conditions, while some islands further to the south had very abundant rainfall. The northern atolls of the RMI (Kwajalein, Utirik and Wotje) were among the driest of locations in Micronesia during 2005; some of the central and southern atoll (ex. Mili) were very wet. Rainfall was above normal during the final quarter of 2005 at most locations, particularly Mili where the three month total rainfall was 62.08 inches. Even Kwajalein had above average rainfall for final quarter of 2005, with a three month total of 33.89 inches (110%) that was nearly as much rainfall as the other nine months of the year. The most rainfall recorded in the RMI during 2005 was at Mili with 158.93 inches (121% of WSO), followed by the 132.66 inches (101%) at the WSO.

Climate Outlook:

With anticipation of weak La Niña conditions to persist for at least the first half of 2006, tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin should form to the west of normal. Thus, the RMI has a very low risk of a typhoon during 2006.

Based on the development of weak La Niña conditions during the first half of 2006, rainfall at most RMI locations should be adequate. The northern island of Kwajalein, Utirik and Wotje should not be quite as dry during the first half of 2006 as they were during the first half of 2005. In fact, computer forecasts and a consensus of outlooks from several regional meteorological centers indicate that rainfall in the RMI is likely to be above normal (even in the north), at least through the next three months.

Predicted rainfall for the RMI from January 2006 through December 2006 is as follows:

source: UOG-WERI