Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2006 Vol. 12 No. 1

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Although the 2005 annual rainfall values recorded on Kosrae were among the highest in Micronesia, they were near normal. The 2005 annual totals were approximately 200 inches at locations around the coastal perimeter of the island. The 2005 annual total of 200.21 inches at Kosrae Supplemental Aviation Weather Reporting Station (SAWRS) (located at the airport on the north side of the island) was 97% of normal. At the Nautilus hotel on the east side of the island the 2005 annual rainfall was 195.65 inches.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2005
Station   Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 2005
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (inches)
10.98
14.34
28.07
53.39
200.21
% of normal
68%
90%
194%
115%
97%
Nautilus*
Rainfall (inches)
10.91
15.14
26.92
52.97
195.65
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook:

During La Niña years, the tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific form to the west and north of normal. If weak La Niña conditions persist through much of 2006, then a damaging tropical storm or typhoon would be very unlikely at Kosrae during 2006. The very early stages of developing tropical cyclones may bring episodes of heavy rain to Kosrae, but these systems should not become tropical storms or typhoons until they are well away from Kosrae.

Based on the development of weak La Niña conditions during the first half of 2006, rainfall at Kosrae should be slightly wetter than normal for most of the year, and particularly in the spring (late March through early June) when the trade-wind trough becomes established in the region.
Predicted rainfall for Kosrae State from January 2006 through December 2006 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average
Jan-Mar 2006
100%
Apr-Jun 2006
120%
Jul-Dec 2006
100%
source: UOG-WERI