Climate Outlook:

The tropical cyclone threat for 2006 should be near normal, with the greatest threat occurring in the months of September through December. One or two tropical depressions may form within Chuuk State in the first half of 2006 bringing heavy rainfall, but then moving northwestward out of Chuuk State before becoming typhoons. In the latter half of 2006, approximately 2 or 3 tropical cyclones should pass through Chuuk State causing gales to some islands and heavy rainfall throughout most of the region. The threat of a direct strike by a typhoon at any island or atoll in Chuuk State is roughly one-third to one-half that of Guam and the CNMI. While we expect no direct strikes by a typhoon of any island or atoll of Chuuk State during 2006, residents should always be prepared for the possibility.

Based on the development of weak La Niña conditions during the first half of 2006, rainfall at islands and atolls of the Chuuk Lagoon and on the other atolls of Chuuk State should be wetter than normal for most months of the year, and especially in the spring (late March through early June) when the trade-wind trough becomes established in the region. Southern Islands could be very wet during this period.

Predictions for Chuuk State from January 2006 through December 2006 are as follows: