PEAC'S TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

In the 2nd Quarter Newsletter, the PEAC outlook for tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin during 2005 was for no above-normal activity in any category (e.g., number of typhoons and number of intense typhoons). Through September of 2005, this has held true, with numbers of tropical cyclones below normal, and locations of tropical cyclones shifted to the west and north of normal. For the remainder of the year (November and December) and into January 2006, we anticipate that three or four tropical cyclones will develop as far east as Pohnpei and then move west and northwest to track past Chuuk, Guam, the CNMI, Yap, and Palau as tropical storms, with one of them possibly a typhoon. This is an average number of such tropical cyclones for the affected regions of Guam, the CNMI, Yap, and Palau. No typhoons or tropical storms are anticipated for Pohnpei, Kosrae, or the RMI.

According to the NIWA's Island Climate Update, the South Pacific tropical cyclone season, from November to May, is likely to be near average in both intensity and frequency due to the ENSO Neutral conditions. ENSO neutral conditions average approximately 9 tropical cyclones in the entire Southwest Pacific Basin with 4 reaching hurricane force winds (74 mph) and 2 reaching over 100 mph. For specific tropical cyclone information for American Samoa see the American Samoa Climate Outlook..