Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 4

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State:  The rainfall total for the 3rd Quarter of 2005 at the Pohnpei WSO (on the north side of Pohnpei Island) was 45.26 inches (89% or normal). At Palikir on the west side of Pohnpei Island, the rainfall total of 59.25 inches (116% of normal) was much wetter than at the WSO. The Palikir rainfall was the highest three month total recorded at any official recording station in Micronesia during the 3rd Quarter of 2005. Rainfall totals on the east side of Pohnpei Island (at a site near Nan Madol) and on the south side of Pohnpei Island (at Enipein School) were generally drier than the totals at the WSO and at Palikir. On the top of the highest mountain (Nahna Laud) in the middle of Pohnpei Island, a total of 68.97 inches of rainfall was recorded during the period 01 July through 15 September 2005. The University of Guam and the Conservation Society of Pohnpei have been recording the rain on top of Nahna Laud since June 2003.

The rainfall at the atolls of Pohnpei State was abundant, and exceeded the amounts at the WSO on Pohnpei Island at Nukuoro and at Kapingamarangi. The 3rd Quarter total of 54.45 inches at Kapingamarangi was 242% of the normal rainfall for the period. Rain has been abundant on Kapingamarangi for many months now. This atoll (near the equator to the south of Pohnpei Island) normally experiences a period of dry weather during the months of July through October, with less than ten inches per month. Abundant rainfall there may be related to the persistent warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in that region.

Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2005
Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. Total
Pohnpei WSO Rainfall (inches) 14.08 10.84 20.34 45.26
% of Normal 77% 66% 127% 89%
Palikir Rainfall (inches) 17.98 18.35 22.92 59.25
% of Normal 98% 111% 143% 116%
Enipein Rainfall (inches) 11.14 10.34 N/A N/A
Nan Madol Rainfall (inches) 9.56 9.19 17.41* 36.16**
Nahna Laud Rainfall (inches) 24.41 25.21 19.35* 68.97**
Nukuoro Rainfall (inches) 21.67 19.23 15.05 55.95
% of Normal 155% 169% 140% 152%
Pingelap Rainfall (inches) N/A 13.75 14.89 N/A
  % of Normal N/A 93% 99% N/A
Mwokilloa Rainfall (inches) N/A 10.44 24.08 N/A
Kapingamarangi Rainfall (inches) 17.09 18.82 18.54 54.45
% of Normal 164% 306% 315% 242%
* Long term normal is not established for these sites


Climate Outlook:

During 2005, the tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific have been forming to the west and north of normal. Thus, a direct strike by a tropical storm or a typhoon is unlikely at any island in Pohnpei State for the remainder of 2005 and into the spring of 2006. Pohnpei is located close enough to the equator so that a direct strike by a typhoon is usually unlikely in any case (although one intense typhoon occurred 100 years ago during the El Niño year of 1905).


Based on the continuation of ENSO Neutral conditions for the next six months, rainfall at Pohnpei Island and at Pohnpei’s atolls should be near normal for the next three to six months, and then potentially wetter than normal on Pohnpei Island and atolls to the east and west when the tradewind trough becomes established in the region by April 2006. Kapingamarangi may be wetter than normal for a few more months (as long as the SST remains above normal in that area), but the rainfall on this island should return to normal sometime in mid 2006.

Predicted rainfall for Pohnpei State from November 2005 through October 2006 is as follows:
Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average
Pohnpei Islands and Atolls
Kapingamarangi
Nov - Dec 2005
100%
120%
Jan - Mar 2006
100%
110%
Apr - Jun 2006
110%
100%
Jul - Oct 2006
100%
100%
Source: UOG-WERI