Guam/CNMI: Rainfall on most of Guam during the 3rd Quarter of 2005 was abundant (especially on the north side of the island at Andersen Air Force Base). The 3-month total of 44.99 inches at the Guam International Airport (GIA) in central Guam was 119 % of normal. Localized heavy daily rainfall in excess of 5 inches occurred twice during August at AAFB pushing that station's August total to 28.33 inches (213%). By contrast, at the GIA, the August total was 17.98 inches (133%). Ironically, the 3rd Quarter 2005 rainfall of 57.90 inches at AAFB was one of Micronesia's highest, and was second only to the 59.25 inches recorded at Palikir on Pohnpei Island. That AAFB could have one of Micronesia's highest rainfall values for this quarter is testimony more to the tranquil nature of 2005 throughout Micronesia rather than of adverse weather at AAFB. The rainfall extremes also reflect this year's tranquility. For Guam during June through September of last year (2004) there were twelve days with rainfall 2 inches and four days in excess of 4 inches at the GIA; this year during June through September, there have been seven and two such days at the GIA, respectively.

During the 3rd Quarter of 2005, most of the CNMI rainfall stations reported slightly less total rainfall than on Guam (in inches), but slightly higher as a percent of normal. Saipan International Airport (SIA) and Capitol Hill experienced 115% of normal and 124% of normal, respectively. The heavy rains (6-9 in.) from Typhoon Nabi represented a large portion of Saipan's total rainfall for the quarter. Rainfall on Rota was also almost equal to that at the GIA on Guam with a 3-month total of 44.55 inches, or 120% of normal. Tinian reported 41.45 inches or 118% of normal.

During the night of 30 August and into the morning hours of 31 August, Typhoon Nabi passed approximately 40 miles to the north of Saipan. Wind gusts of over 75 mph were likely experienced on parts of the Island. Damage to vegetation on the north side of the island (personally observed by UOG Meteorologist Mark Lander) was consistent with that of a Category 1 typhoon. The SIA, the public utilities, businesses and homes suffered only minimal damage. Saipan and Guam experienced very high surf for several days after Nabi's passage.

Climate Outlook:

The tropical cyclone distribution in the western North Pacific basin through September of 2005 was typical for a year that follows an El Niño event. The numbers of tropical cyclones have been below normal and the formation region has been west and north of normal. During the months of November 2005 through January 2006, the formation region of tropical cyclones is expected to expand into the Caroline Islands, resulting in a near normal threat of a typhoon for Guam and the CNMI during these three months. Thus, two tropical storms and possibly one typhoon should pass within 200 miles of any Guam and CNMI location between November 2005 to January 2006. The time of greatest threat will be November through mid-December. Dangerous surf from a typhoon does not require that the typhoon pass close to any location; at least one episode of dangerous typhoon-generated waves will occur. Every year several lives are lost due to hazardous surf.

Rainfall is anticipated to be near normal for Guam and the CNMI for the remainder of 2005 and through the next dry season. The rainy season of 2006 should begin on time in July 2006, with abundant (but not excessive rains) thereafter.

Predicted rainfall for the Mariana Islands from November 2005 through October 2006 is as follows: