Pacific ENSO Update
4th Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 4
Federated States of Micronesia
Chuuk State: Rainfall was near normal throughout most of Chuuk State during the 3rd Quarter of 2005. Three-month totals across the State were generally in the range of 35 to 45 inches. The WSO Chuuk was one of the wettest locations during the 3rd Quarter of 2005 with a 3-month total of 44.44 inches, or 116% of normal. At the WSO, September was particularly wet with 21.85 inches (190%). As it was for the first half of 2005, Polowat was again the wettest location in Chuuk State, with a total of 45.90 inches (109%) during the 3rd Quarter of 2005.
Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2005| Station | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuuk WSO | Rainfall (inches) | 11.72 | 10.87 | 21.85 | 44.44 |
| % of Normal | 97% | 75% | 190% | 116% | |
Piis Panew* |
Rainfall (inches) | 6.32 | 10.38 | 11.57 | 28.27 |
| Xavier High School * | Rainfall (inches) | 12.20 | 13.71 | N/A | N/A |
Lukunoch* |
Rainfall (inches) | 10.15 | 13.94 |
9.34 | 33.43 |
| Ettal | Rainfall (inches) | 11.28 | 22.55 | 6.20 | 40.03 |
Ta* |
Rainfall (inches) | 10.62 | 16.36 | 9.48 | 36.46 |
Fananu* |
Rainfall (inches) | 10.88 | 10.95 | 15.39 | 37.22 |
Losap* |
Rainfall (inches) | 14.78 | 18.44 | 11.38 | 44.60 |
Nama* |
Rainfall (inches) | 13.50 | 11.41 | 115.33 | 40.24 |
Polowat |
Rainfall (inches) | 7.57 | 18.93 | 19.40 | 45.90 |
| % of Normal | 54% | 126% | 146% | 109% |
N/A indicates data unvailable
Climate Outlook:
The threat from a tropical cyclone for Chuuk State during the remaining months of 2005 through January of 2006 is expected to be near normal. Normal indicates that one or two tropical storms should pass through some parts of Chuuk State, accompanied by gales and high surf. A direct hit by a typhoon at any of the islands and atolls of Chuuk State is not expected.
Based on a continuation of ENSO Neutral conditions for the next six months, rainfall at islands in the Chuuk Lagoon and on the atolls of Chuuk State should be near normal through February of 2006, and possibly slightly wetter than normal in the spring of 2006 when the tradewind trough becomes established in the region.
Predictions for Chuuk State from November 2005 through October 2006 are as follows:
| Losap/Nama | Polowat | Hall Is. | Mortlocks | |
| Nov 2005 - Dec 2005 | 105% | 105% | 100% | 100% |
| Jan - Mar 2006 | 100% | 100% | 95% | 100% |
| Apr - Jun 2006 | 120% | 120% | 100% | 110% |
| Jul - Oct 2006 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |