Pacific ENSO Update
3rd Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 3
Federated States of Micronesia
Yap State: For the first six months of 2005, the total rainfall at most recording locations in Yap Island was near normal, with all stations reporting between 40 and 50 inches of rain. During July 2005, rainfall was heavy with approximately 20 inches at all stations on Yap Island. Farther south at Woleai Atoll, the total rainfall during the first half of 2005 was greater than on Yap Island or at Ulithi. The six month total rainfall of 38.76 inches at Ulithi was the lowest recorded in Yap State for that period. At the Yap WSO the total rainfall for the first half of 2005 was 46.91 inches (100% of normal).
Yap State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter 2005| Station | Apr. | May | Jun. | Total | 6-month Total |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yap WSO | Rainfall (inches) | 12.84 | 5.37 | 13.75 | 31.96 | 46.91 |
| % of Normal | 223% | 59% | 108% | 116% | 100% | |
| Dugor* | Rainfall (inches) | 10.86 | 7.36 | 11.00 | 29.22 | 44.66 |
| Gilman* | Rainfall (inches) | 17.61 | 7.12 | 12.34 | 37.07 | 49.62 |
| Luweech* | Rainfall (inches) | 11.37 | 7.83 | 16.04 | 35.24 | 50.59 |
| Maap* | Rainfall (inches) | 9.39 | 7.70 | 11.65 | 28.74 | 40.02 |
| North Fanif* | Rainfall (inches) | 11.04 | 8.87 | 10.89 | 30.80 | 40.82 |
| Rumung* | Rainfall (inches) | 10.97 | 8.73 | 13.61 | 33.31 | 47.61 |
| Tamil* | Rainfall (inches) | 11.33 | 8.51 | 14.76 | 34.63 | 48.52 |
| Ulithi | Rainfall (inches) | 7.76 | 3.98 | 7.61 | 19.35 | 38.76 |
| % of Normal | 158% | 52% | 71% | 83% | 97% | |
| Woleai | Rainfall (inches) | 10.13 | 7.35 | 10.65 | 28.30 | 54.97 |
| % of Normal | 92% | 60% | 82% | 78% | 88% |
Climate Outlook:
The tropical cyclone threat for the remaining months of 2005 should be near normal. During the months of September through December 2005, approximately two or three tropical cyclones should pass close enough to Yap (and/or its outer islands) to cause gales. The threat of a direct strike by a typhoon at Yap Island and at Ulithi is roughly one-half to two-thirds that of Guam and the CNMI. The threat is even less further south at Woleai. While we expect no direct strikes by a typhoon of any island or atoll of Yap State in the remainder of 2005, residents should always be prepared for the possibility.Predicted rainfall for Yap State from September 2005 through August 2006 is as follows:
| % of Long-Term Average | ||
| Yap and Ulithi
|
Woleai | |
| Sep - Dec 2005 (Rest of Rainy Season) | 100% | 110% |
| Jan 2006 - May 2006 (Next Dry Season) | 95% | 100% |
| Jun - Aug 2006 (Onset of next Rainy Season) | 90% | 90% |