PEAC'S TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK SUMMARY

In the last Newsletter, the PEAC outlook for tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin during 2005 was "no above-normal activity should be expected in any category (e.g., number of typhoons and number of intense typhoons)". Through August of 2005, this has held true, with numbers of tropical cyclones below normal, and locations of tropical cyclones shifted to the west and north of normal. For the remainder of the year (especially during October through December), we anticipate an eastward expansion of the region of tropical cyclone formation into the eastern Caroline Islands, so that some of the tropical cyclones in the basin will develop as far east as Pohnpei and then move west and northwest to track past Chuuk, Guam, the CNMI, Yap, and Palau as tropical storms and typhoons. The number of such tropical cyclones will be near normal, and the threat of a tropical storm or typhoon will be greatest in the western and northwestern islands (Guam, the CNMI, Yap, and Palau) during the last four months of the year (September through December). No typhoons or tropical storms are anticipated for Pohnpei, Kosrae, or the RMI