Pacific ENSO Update
3rd Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 3
Republic of Palau: Along with other island groups in the north and western portions of Micronesia, Palau was drier than normal during the first half of 2005. Some of the tropical cyclones that have formed so far in 2005 have passed to north of Palau, and contributed some rainfall. Palau is one of only a few islands of Micronesia to experience the southwest winds of the Asian monsoon, which have remained well to the west of normal. The rainfall total for the first half of 2005 at Koror was 54.97 inches, or 83% of normal.
| Station | Apr. | May | Jun. | Total | 6-month | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koror WSO | Rainfall (inches) | 8.96 | 19.51 | 7.24 | 35.31 | 54.97 |
| % of Normal | 99%% | 163% | 42% | 93% | 83% | |
Nekken* |
Rainfall (inches) | 6.08 | 20.41 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| International Airport * |
Rainfall (inches) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Peleliu | Rainfall (inches) | 1.78 | 8.33 | 7.19 | 17.30 | 32.55 |
| % of Normal | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
N/A Not Available
Climate Outlook:
Dry conditions in Palau during the first half of 2005 were consistent the end of El Niņo conditions during early 2005. The year after an El Niņo event tends to be drier than normal throughout Micronesia, and especially at island locations in the western and northern portions of Micronesia (for example: Guam, Yap, and the CNMI). Because the monsoon will affect Palau for the remainder of 2005, rainfall is expected to average near normal with some large month-to-month variations.A direct strike by a typhoon is not likely to occur in Palau during 2005. However, the tropical cyclone distribution in the western North Pacific basin has shifted to the west; westerly gales may occur two or three times in response to typhoons passing to the north of Palau during the period September through early December.
Predicted rainfall for Palau from September 2005 through August 2006 is as follows:
Sep - Dec 2005 |
110% |
Jan 2006 - May 2006 |
95% |
Jun – Aug 2006 |
100% |