Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 3

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State:  During the first half of 2005, rainfall totals on Kosrae were just over 100 inches at all recording locations. The six month rainfall total of 107.47 inches at the Nautilus Hotel was the highest recorded official rainfall in Micronesia during this time period (excluding the extreme rainfall of over 180 inches recorded by the UOG/CSP rain gage network on top of Nahna Laud on Pohnpei Island ). Although the rainfall values recorded on Kosrae were the heaviest in Micronesia, they were actually near normal. The six month total of 105.84 inches at Kosrae Supplemental Aviation Weather Reporting Station (SAWRS) (located at the airport on the north side of the island) was 97% of normal

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter 2005
Station   Apr. May Jun. Total 6-month
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS) Rainfall (inches) 21.92 16.23 22.01 60.16 105.84
% of Normal 101% 86% 116% 101% 97%
Utwa* Rainfall (inches) 24.84 20.00 20.57 65.41 106.30
Nautilus* Rainfall (inches) 22.81 22.47 20.66 65.94 107.47
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook:

The tropical cyclone distribution during 2005 is shifted to the west of normal, and therefore, no tropical storms or typhoons should adversely affect Kosrae. Kosrae is located close enough to the equator so that a direct strike by a strong tropical storm or a typhoon is usually very unlikely in any case, although it did occur 100 years ago! During the El Niño year of 1905, an intense typhoon hit Kosrae, and went on to strike Pohnpei also.

Based on the continuation of ENSO Neutral conditions for the remainder of 2005 into early 2006, rainfall at Kosrae should average near normal for the next year.

Predicted rainfall for Kosrae State from September 2005 through August 2006 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average
Sep 2005 - Jan 2006
95%
Feb - Jun 2006
100%
Jul - Aug 2006
95%
source: UOG-WERI