Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 3

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State: Rainfall was abundant throughout most of Chuuk State during the first half of 2005. January 2005 monthly rainfall totals were very high, with reports in excess of 20 inches at some locations. February was very dry, with rainfall totals of 2 inches or less at most locations. Polowat was the wettest location in Chuuk State during the first half of 2005 with 88.59 inches. This was 185% of normal, which was the highest percent of normal at any location in Micronesia during the first half of 2005.

Guam and CNMI Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter 2005

Station   Apr. May Jun. Total 6-month
Chuuk WSO Rainfall (inches) 14.89 9.34 11.72 38.91 77.42
% of Normal 121% 76% 125% 107% 126%

Piis Panew*

Rainfall (inches) 11.15 14.46 11.08 36.69 55.93
Xavier High School * Rainfall (inches) 15.15 10.10 13.31 38.56 N/A

Lukunoch*

Rainfall (inches) 15.38 5.19 10.49 31.06 67.90
Ettal Rainfall (inches) 14.39 6.54 21.91 43.35 72.78

Ta*

Rainfall (inches) 17.40 6.59 15.37 39.36 69.40

Fananu*

Rainfall (inches) 12.97 14.79 8.69 36.45 57.04

Losap*

Rainfall (inches) 11.54 16.98 8.82 37.04 74.36

Nama*

Rainfall (inches) 14.70 12.33 14.76 41.79 80.91

Polowat

Rainfall (inches) 20.40 6.98 17.27 44.65 86.57
% of Normal 340% 78% 138% 162% 185%
* Long term normal is not established for these sites
N/A indicates data unvailable

Climate Outlook:

The threat from a tropical cyclone for Chuuk State during the remaining months of 2005 is expected to be near normal. Normal indicates that one or two tropical storms and one typhoon should pass near some parts of Chuuk State, accompanied by gales and high surf. A direct hit by a typhoon at any of the islands and atolls of Chuuk State is not expected.

Based on a continuation of ENSO Neutral conditions for the rest of 2005, rainfall at islands in the Chuuk Lagoon and on the atolls of Chuuk State should be near normal through February of 2006, then perhaps be slightly wetter than normal in the spring when the trade-wind trough becomes established in the region.

Predictions for Chuuk State from September 2005 through August 2006 are as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average
  Losap/Nama Polowat Hall Is. Mortlocks
Sep 2005 – Dec 2005
105%
105%
100%
100%
Jan 2006 – Mar 2006
100%
100%
95%
100%
Apr – Jun 2006
120%
120%
100%
110%
Jul – Aug 2006
100%
100%
100%
100%
source: UOG-WERI