Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 2

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: When averaged over the first three months of 2005, the rainfall at most locations on Pohnpei Island and the atolls of Pohnpei was near normal. There was, however, extreme month-to-month variation not reflected in this 3-month average. Rainfall during February 2005 was less than half of normal at many locations, followed in March and April by abundant rainfall. Pohnpei Island experienced a tremendous range of rainfall values, from a near record dry month (February) to an extreme 24-hour heavy rain event (April 30th). On the last day of April, Pohnpei experienced an extreme rainfall event in which the WSO in Kolonia received nearly 11 inches of rain in 24 hours. During the 13-year period 1990-2002, the WSO Pohnpei received over 10 inches in 24 hours only two times (Figure 2).

During this event [April 2005], there were two reported casualties: one was a drowning in rough seas and another occurred when a tree was blown over on top of a person. The cause of this event was a large meso-scale convective complex (not a tropical cyclone) that formed in the trade-wind trough. Through April of 2005, there have been large month-to-month fluctuations in cloudiness and rainfall (most likely associated with the MJO).

Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2005
Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. Total
Pohnpei WSO Rainfall (inches) 14.33 3.16 21.64 39.13
% of Normal 110% 29% 160% 105%
Palikir* Rainfall (inches) 14.19 3.91 21.73 39.83
Song Kroun* Rainfall (inches) 11.27 3.76 23.31 38.34
Nukuoro Rainfall (inches) 11.63 4.33 21.59 37.55
% of Normal 99% 41% 159% 105%
Pingelap Rainfall (inches) 14.49 14.62 15.07 44.18
  % of Normal 117% 120% 104% 113%
Mwokilloa* Rainfall (inches) 8.14 1.29 3.12 12.55
Kapingamarangi Rainfall (inches) 16.21 7.41 7.80 31.42
  % of Normal 155% 72% 56% 91%
* Long term normal is not established for these sites


Climate Outlook:

The frequency of named tropical cyclones passing Pohnpei is less than once every three years within 75 n mi, with a sharp gradient that features almost no tropical storms south of 5° N to more than one tropical storm or typhoon passing within 75 n mi of locations several hundred miles to the north and west of Pohnpei. During 2005, one or two tropical storms may pass to the north of Pohnpei Island bringing heavy rain showers, gusty southwest winds, and high surf. El Niño increases the risk of a tropical storm directly affecting Pohnpei; this year marks the one-hundred year anniversary of an intense and deadly typhoon that made a direct hit at Pohnpei Island during the strong El Niño year of 1905. Since the climate of 2005 is anticipated to be El Niño Neutral, a direct strike by a strong tropical storm or a typhoon is unlikely at any island in Pohnpei State.
Based on the gradual transition of the climate to El Niño Neutral conditions during 2005, rainfall at Pohnpei Island and at Pohnpei’s atolls should be near normal for the next 3 to 6 months, with large month-to-month variations.
Predicted rainfall for Pohnpei State from Jun 2005 through May 2006 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average
Pohnpei Islands and Atolls
Kapingamarangi
Jun - Oct 2005
100%
95%
Nov 2005 - Jan 2006
95%
100%
Feb - Mar 2006
90%
95%
Apr - May 2006
100%
90%
Source: UOG-WERI