Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 2

Palau Flag Republic of Palau: The January 2005 monthly totals were near normal throughout Palau. February however was very dry, with rainfall totals of 2 inches or less at most locations. Adequate rainfall returned in March and in April.

The second half of 2004 was very dry at all Palau locations. During the 1st quarter of 2005 dry conditions continued at Palau (70% of normal). The rainfall total for August 2004 through March 2005 at WSO Koror was 54.26 inches, or only 54% of the normal 92.00 inches that typically falls in this 8-month period.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2005
Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. Total
Koror WSO Rainfall (inches) 11.39 1.03 7.24 19.66
% of Normal 106% 11% 88% 70%

Nekken*

Rainfall (inches) 7.61 1.39 N/A N/A
International
Airport *
Rainfall (inches) 9.21 1.08 N/A N/A
Peleliu Rainfall (inches) 9.65 .77 N/A N/A
% of Normal 90% 9% N/A N/A
* Long term normal is not established for these sites
N/A Not Available

Climate Outlook:

Dry conditions in Palau during the second half of 2004 and during the first quarter of 2005 were consistent with the onset of El Niño conditions during the second half of 2004, and a gradual return to El Niño Neutral conditions during 2005. This dryness is expected to ease in the next three to six months.

A direct strike by a typhoon is not likely to occur in Palau during 2005, but westerly gales may occur two or three times in response to typhoons passing to the north of Palau during the period August through November.

Predicted rainfall for Palau from Jun 2005 through May 2006 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average
Jun - Oct 2005
  100% 
Nov 2005 - Jan 2006
95%
Feb - May 2006
90%
source: UOG-WERI