Pacific ENSO Update
2nd Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 2
Federated States of Micronesia
Chuuk State: Rainfall was abundant throughout most of Chuuk State during the first quarter of 2005, with substantial month-to-month variation. During January 2005, rains associated with the year's first tropical cyclone (Tropical Storm Kulap) helped end the moderately dry weather that had persisted in the last three months of 2004. The January 2005 monthly totals were quite high, with reports in excess of 20 inches at some locations. February was very dry, with rainfall totals of 2 inches or less at most locations. Rainfall was again abundant in March and in April. Polowat was the wettest location in Chuuk State during the 1st Quarter of 2005 with 41.92 inches. This was over 200% of normal, which was the highest percent of normal at any location in Micronesia.
Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2005
| Station | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuuk WSO | Rainfall (inches) | 20.93 | 1.91 | 12.78 | 35.54 |
| % of Normal | 196% | 21% | 152% | 141% | |
Piis Panew* |
Rainfall (inches) | 11.26 | 1.95 | 6.03 | 19.24 |
| Xavier High School * | Rainfall (inches) | N/A | N/A | 12.17 | N/A |
Lukunoch* |
Rainfall (inches) | 16.86 | .42 | 19.56 | 36.84 |
| Ettal | Rainfall (inches) | 13.74 | .38 | 15.82 | 29.94 |
Ta* |
Rainfall (inches) | 10.51 | 1.16 | 18.37 | 30.04 |
Fananu* |
Rainfall (inches) | 13.47 | 2.26 | 4.86 | 20.59 |
Losap* |
Rainfall (inches) | 20.07 | 1.71 | 15.24 | 37.02 |
Nama* |
Rainfall (inches) | 18.45 | 1.45 | 19.22 | 39.12 |
Polowat |
Rainfall (inches) | 23.92 | 4.24 | 13.76 | 41.92 |
| % of Normal | 299% | 68% | 220% | 204% |
N/s indicates data unvailable
Climate Outlook:
The tropical cyclone threat for Chuuk State during 2005 is expected to be near normal. Normal indicates that one or two tropical storms and one typhoon should pass through some parts of Chuuk State, accompanied by gales and high surf. A direct hit by a typhoon at any of the islands and atolls of Chuuk State is not expected.
Based on the gradual demise of weak El Niņo conditions during 2005, rainfall at islands in the Chuuk Lagoon and on the atolls of Chuuk State should be near normal for the next 3 to 6 months, with large month-to-month variations.
Predictions for Chuuk State from Jun 2005 through May 2006 are as follows:
| Losap/Nama | Polowat | Hall Is. | Mortlocks | |
| Jun- Sep 2005 | 95% | 95% | 100% | 90% |
| Oct - Dec 2005 | 90% | 95% | 95% | 90% |
| Jan - May 2006 | 100% | 95% | 90% | 100% |