Pacific ENSO Update
2nd Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 2
American Samoa: The total rainfall of 36.73 inches in American Samoa during the first quarter of 2005 was normal (100%). Rainfall at Pago Pago could have been much higher had major Hurricanes Olaf, Nancy or Percy passed only 100 miles or so closer. The Manua Islands (Ofu, Olosega and Ta’u) to the east of Pago Pago were hit almost directly by Olaf, and experienced great destruction from high winds, and enormous waves.
American Samoa Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2005
| Station | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pago Pago WSO | Rainfall (inches) | 13.25 | 10.55 | 12.93 | 36.73 |
| % of Normal | 105% | 83% | 115% | 100% |
Climate Outlook:
Computer forecasts and a consensus of outlooks from several regional meteorological centers indicate that rainfall in American Samoa is likely to be near normal through the winter dry season. Long-range computer rainfall forecasts, however, have only limited skill in the tropical Pacific islands. Predicted rainfall for American Samoa from June 2005 through May 2006 is:
Inclusive Period |
% of Long-Term Average |
|---|---|
Jun - Oct 2005 (Dry Season) 90% |
90% |
| Nov 2005-Jan 2006 (Onset of Next Rainy Season) |
100% |
Feb - May 2006 (Heart of Next Rainy Season) |
100% |