Pacific ENSO Update1st Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 1 |
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Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI): Rainfall at most locations in the RMI was near normal during 2004. The 2004 annual totals were 120.72 inches (92%) at the Weather Service Office (WSO) in Majuro and 102.96 inches at Kwajalein (102%). During October, November, and December, the WSO at Majuro measured 7.26 inches (52%), 6.00 inches (47%), and 11.05 inches (93%) respectively. This amounted to a total of 24.31 inches (63%) for the 3-month period. At Kwajalein and nearby Ebeye in the northern atolls of the RMI, the rainfall for October, November, and December was 9.74 inches (82%), 12.84 inches (120%), and 11.54 inches (142%), respectively. This amounted to a total of 34.12 inches (111%) for the 3-month period. At Alinglaplap, the October, November, and December rainfall was 15.02 inches (117%), 8.52 inches (73%), and 10.25 inches (103%), respectively. This amounted to a total of 33.79 inches (98%) for the 3-month period. El Niņo conditions bring an enhanced threat of a tropical cyclone to the central and northern Marshall Islands, especially in the months of November and December of an El Niņo year, and in the January of the year after. In the last Newsletter, the possibility was highlighted for a tropical storm to form within the RMI, or to move westward across the International Date Line into the RMI. This did indeed happen when Tropical Storm Talas formed east of the International Date Line in early December and passed just to the south of Kwajalein on the night of the 10th. Tropical Storm Talas passed about 20 miles to the south of Kwajalein where a peak wind gust of 65 mph was recorded, the sustained wind reached 46 mph, and the sea level pressure fell to 1002.9 mb. According to sources at the Kwajalein missile test range, there was some light damage to the facilities there, including many palm fronds torn from the coconut trees and strewn on the lawns and roads, several broadleaf tropical trees uprooted, a metal door torn off the high school, and minor architectural failures such as tin roofing torn off. Two barges broke loose from their moorings and had to be corralled, but not before they bumped into and damaged a sailboat. Based on the gradual demise of weak El Niņo conditions during 2005, conditions are anticipated to be slightly drier than normal in the northern atolls of the RMI during the next 3 to 6 months, and then return to near normal. The central and southern atolls should continue to have near normal rainfall. Predicted rainfall for the RMI from Feb 2005 through Jan 2006 is as follows:
source: UOG-WERI |