Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: :Rainfall was near normal on Pohnpei Island and at Nukuoro during 2004, somewhat drier than normal at Pingelap and Mwoakilloa, and wetter than normal at Kapingamarangi. The 2004 annual rainfall total of 177.30 inches at the Pohnpei Weather Service Office (WSO) in Kolonia on Pohnpei Island was slightly drier than normal (94%), the 2004 annual total of 157.42 inches at Nukuoro was 105% of normal, the 2004 annual total of 129.38 inches at Pingelap was 78% of normal, and the 2004 annual total of 136.47 inches at Kapingamarangi was 124% of normal. The rainfall in the fourth quarter of 2004 (October, November and December) was a bit below normal on Pohnpei Island and Mwokilloa, well below normal at Nukuoro and at Pingelap, and above normal at Kapingamarangi. The pattern of rainfall in Pohnpei State during the fourth quarter of 2004 was consistent with the pattern typically associated with El Niño (drier than normal on Pohnpei Island and atolls to the west and east, and wet at Kapingamarangi which is near the equator). Slightly drier than normal conditions are expected for the first half of 2005 as weak El Niño conditions gradually fade.

The rainfall at the Pohnpei WSO (on the north side of Pohnpei Island) was 11.26 inches (67%) in October, 13.67 inches (87%) in November, and 17.99 inches (118%) in December, for a 3-month total of 42.92 inches (90%). At Pingelap, observed rainfall in October, November and December was 7.02 inches (47%), 7.59 inches (53%), and 5.31 inches (40%), respectively, for a 3-month total of only 19.92 inches (47%). At Nukuoro, observed rainfall in October, November, and December was 4.89 inches (45%), 10.10 inches (84%), and 10.32 inches (86%) respectively, for a 3-month total of 25.31 inches (73%). The rainfall at Kapingamarangi during October, November, and December was 3.42 inches (71%), 14.20 inches (173%), and 5.96 inches (68%) respectively, for a 3-month total of 23.58 inches (108%). For most of 2004 persistent convection was anchored along the equator in association with warmer than normal SST there. This convection has been producing substantial amounts of rain at Kanpingamarangi, which is located near the equator.

The frequency of named tropical cyclones passing Pohnpei is less than once every three years within 75 nm, with a sharp gradient that features almost no tropical storms south of 5° N to over 1 tropical storm or typhoon passing within 75 nm of locations several hundred miles to the north and west of Pohnpei. During 2005, one or two tropical storms may pass to the north of Pohnpei Island bringing heavy rain showers, gusty southwest winds, and high surf. A direct strike by a strong tropical storm or a typhoon is unlikely at any island in Pohnpei State. However, Pohnpei is not immune to a direct hit from a typhoon. This year marks the one-hundred year anniversary of an intense and devasting typhoon that made a direct hit at Pohnpei Island.

Based on the gradual demise of weak El Niño conditions during 2005, conditions are anticipated to be drier than normal at Pohnpei Island and atolls, and near normal at Kapingamarangi for the next 3 to 6 months.

Predicted rainfall for Pohnpei State from Feb 2005 through Jan 2006 is as follows: